| Citation: | PEI H W,ZHANG H J,ZHANG L,et al.Assessment and prediction of ecosystem services in Qingshui River Basin[J].Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology，2022，12（5）：1466-1473 doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210341
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Rapid urbanization, agricultural activities and ecological restoration significantly altered land-use pattern and eco-environments of Qingshui River Basin. It is critical for assessing and projecting the future land-use patterns, ecosystem service and its values for ecologically sustainable areas. Based on the CA-Markov model and GIS software, the future ecosystem service and its values were simulated by using InVEST model in the way of prediction plus design. The results showed that: 1) In 2000, 2009 and 2018, the average values of carbon storage, soil conservation, and water yield in Qingshui River Basin approached approximately 100.68 t/hm2, 800.62 t/hm2, and 57.88 mm, respectively, exhibiting the increasing trends in water yield and soil conservation except for carbon storage which had a decreasing trend. 2) The total ecosystem service values in the study area reached approximately 2.44 billion yuan in 2018, with a 2.2% decrease compared with the level in 2000. This value was 2.31 times of the total output value of agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry, and 0.78 times of local gross domestic product (GDP). 3) As “Grain for Green” practices were implemented in the regions with >15° slopes, the ecosystem service values of carbon storage and soil conservation got pronouncedly improved, whereas water yield exhibited an obvious decreased trend. The research showed that under the condition of a homogeneous climate in Qingshui River Basin in the last 20 years, the ecosystem service and its values had not significantly increased or even declined. Specifically, the afforestation practices on steep slopes of >15° may help reverse the trend of ecological degradation in Qingshui River Basin.
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