| Citation: | WU C H,SUN Q H,DUAN H B,et al.Technology progress and economic cost analysis of photovoltaic industry based on life cycle assessment[J].Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology，2022，12（3）：957-966 doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210387
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To systematically analyze the environmental impact, technological progress and economic cost of the photovoltaic industry, firstly the life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted to quantitatively analyze the environmental impacts of the industry. Based on the results of LCA, the technology progress assessment model of photovoltaic industry was constructed and the technology progress rates were calculated. Then the investments of equipment in photovoltaic industry were combined with the results of the environmental impact assessment to calculate the cost reduction rates. At the same time, the photovoltaic electricity price subsidy policies in recent years were sorted out to calculate the subsidy decline rates. Finally, the photovoltaic industry technological progress and economic cost were comprehensively analyzed. The results showed that the photovoltaic industry had an environmental impact potential of 83.83 Pt when producing 1 kWp polysilicon photovoltaic modules, among which high purity polysilicon, silicon wafer, cell and module accounted for 43.05%, 16.24%, 14.84% and 25.87%, respectively. Taking 2016 as the base year, the technological progress rates of the photovoltaic industry in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 were 5.20%, 8.98%, 12.48% and 20.91%; the cost reduction rates were −5.81%, −21.05%, −25.23% and −32.63%; and the subsidy decline rates were −15.60%, -30.36%, −40.46% and −51.33%, respectively. During the same period, the decline rates of photovoltaic subsidies were greater than the rates of technological progress and cost decline. The rates of technological progress and cost decline were more synchronized after 2017, reflecting that the decline in subsidies could force companies to adopt more advanced technologies to reduce costs to a certain extent.
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