Research on the system dynamics of economic-energy-environment (3E) coupling in industrial parks

Industrial parks are not only the gathering place of enterprises, but also the high incidence of pollution. So the ecologically oriented development of industrial parks is of great significance to regional green development. In view of the complex relationship among economic, energy and environmental systems in the development of industrial parks, a system dynamics model of the economy, energy, and environment (3E) was developed, based on the effectiveness of the model, a national eco-industrial park was taken as an example for dynamic simulation. According to the current situation of the case park, the development trend of the industrial park was predicted by providing six scenarios, i.e. benchmark, energy conservation and carbon reduction, pollution reduction, energy structure adjustment, moderate economic growth and increasing energy conservation and carbon reduction. Then, the prediction results were evaluated according to the Standard for National Demonstration Eco-industrial Parks (HJ 274-2015). The results showed that the 3E system dynamics model of industrial parks could be used to predict the development trend of the parks. Through the regulation of key factors such as economic growth rate, energy consumption intensity, energy structure and emission reduction factors, the development scenarios could be optimized. The park development growth rate and the energy conservation and emission reduction intensity under certain conditions could be put forward, so as to provide scientific guidance and decision support for park planning and development.