Prediction of municipal solid waste production of typical cities around Bohai Region based on ARIMA model

With the rapid social and economic development around Bohai Region and the significant increase of population, the municipal solid waste (MSW) production has increased year by year, and the pollution caused by it has a significant impacts on the urban development, the environment and the life citizens' lives. Therefore, an accurate prediction of MSW production is very important for subsequent treatment and disposal. Based on this, the current situation of MSW production in ten typical cities around Bohai Sea from 2005 to 2019 was analyzed, and the ARIMA model was established by MATLAB to predict the MSW production in 2020-2024. The prediction results showed that from 2020 to 2024, the growth range and speed of the MSW production of ten typical large cities around Bohai Region were different, but on the whole, the MSW production exhibited an increasing trend from 2020 to 2024, which was consistent with the growth trend of that from 2005 to 2019. The MSW production in the ten cities, Tianjin, Dalian, Yingkou, Panjin, Jinzhou, Huludao, Binzhou, Weifang, Dongying and Yantai in 2024 would be 3 651 600, 2 786 500, 627 300, 303 400, 1 200 500, 498 100, 510 200, 814 100, 887 600 and 1 376 800 tonnes, respectively.