Influencing factors and scenario analysis of China's CO₂ emission of energy consumption

In view of China's action plan for peak carbon dioxide emission before 2030 and the current rapid development of economic and energy demand, based on the time series data from 2000 to 2020, the Tapio decoupling model was used to quantitatively analyze the decoupling status between CO₂ emission of energy consumption and economic growth in China. The expanded STIRPAT model was established, the influencing factors on CO₂ emission of energy consumption were analyzed, and the scenario analysis was used to predict CO₂ emission of China's energy consumption in the future under four different scenarios: baseline scenario (S0), industrial structure optimization scenario (S1), energy structure optimization scenario (S2) and multi-factor optimization scenario (S3). The results showed that: The decoupling between CO₂ emission of energy consumption and economic growth was generally dominated by weak decoupling. It was found that for 1% change in population, energy consumption structure, proportion of the secondary industry, urbanization level, per-capita GDP, proportion of the tertiary industry, and carbon emissions intensity, there was 2.857%, 0.879%, 0.836%, 0.623%, (0.221+0.011ln A₁)%, 0.241%, and 0.132% change in CO₂ emission, respectively. Under the baseline scenario, the carbon dioxide peak could not be achieved before 2030. Under the industrial structure optimization scenario and the energy structure optimization scenario, China would achieve the peak carbon dioxide emission in 2030, with peaks of 11.090 billion tons and 10.918 billion tons, respectively. Under the multi-factor optimization scenario, the carbon dioxide peak could be achieved before 2030, and the peak would be 10.503 billion tons.