Habitat quality assessment and prediction in Suzhou based on CLUE-S and InVEST models

Assessing the evolution of habitat quality under land use changes in the process of urbanization is of great significance for building a comprehensive ecological planning system and responding to major challenges in global sustainable development. Based on the land use data and socio-economic data interpreted by remote sensing images of Suzhou in 2010 and 2018, this paper selects driving factors such as elevation, slope, distance to highway, and population density, and uses the CLUE-S model to simulate land use changes in 2030 under multiple scenarios, and the InVEST model is used to assess and predict the spatial and temporal evolution of habitat quality in the past and future to explore the impact of land use change on habitat. The results showed that the optimal fitting scale was 400 m × 400 m, the Kappa coefficient reached 0.854 5, and the model was able to simulate the future land use cover pattern of the study area well. In terms of temporal distribution, the habitat quality under the ecological protection scenario in Suzhou in 2030 was the best, while the habitat quality under the natural growth scenario in 2030 was lower than that in 2010 and 2018. In terms of spatial distribution, the habitat quality in the central city of Suzhou, areas with higher concentration of industries and high intensity of population activities are poor, while the habitat quality in the areas with developed water systems such as around Taihu Lake is better. Therefore, the future research area should pay more attention to ecological protection and achieve high-quality development while developing the economy.