Comparative analysis of carbon emissions in Tianjin based on LMDI method and STIRPAT model

By sorting out changes in Tianjin's carbon emissions from 2000 to 2019, the carbon emission models were constructed based on LMDI method and STIRPAT model, respectively. The influencing factors of carbon emissions were compared and analyzed, and the carbon peak and carbon neutrality situation in Tianjin under three scenarios, including baseline scenario, low-carbon scenario, and ultra-low-carbon scenario, were predicted. The results showed that the continuous optimization of Tianjin's energy structure and the continuous reduction of energy intensity were the main factors leading to the reduction of Tianjin's carbon emissions, but the increase in Tianjin's wealth and the increase in urbanization rate had promoted the increase in Tianjin's carbon emissions. Under the baseline scenario, it was difficult for Tianjin to achieve carbon peak in 2025 and carbon neutrality before 2060. In the low-carbon scenario, Tianjin could achieve carbon peak before 2025, but it was more difficult to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Under the ultra-low-carbon scenario, Tianjin was more likely to achieve carbon peak before 2025, and under the implementation of the carbon sink project, it could achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.