Scenario analysis of motor vehicle emission trends and synergistic control in Beijing

In order to analyze the trends of motor vehicle emissions on the time scale of Beijing, the synergistic control effects of motor vehicle emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases were studied. COPERT 5 model was applied to construct the emission inventories of motor vehicle pollutants CO, NO_x, VOCs, PM_2.5 and greenhouse gases CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O in Beijing from 2005 to 2020, and five emission reduction scenarios were set up to evaluate the emission reduction effects of motor vehicle pollutants under each scenario in 2025 with 2020 as the base year, and the synergistic emission reduction elasticity coefficient method and coordinate system method were applied to analyze the synergistic effects of air pollutants and greenhouse gases, respectively. The results showed that CO₂ emissions increased significantly, with a growth rate of 85.25% in 2020 compared to 2005, while all the pollutants decreased compared to 2005. Under different control scenarios, the emissions of motor vehicle air pollutants and greenhouse gases in Beijing were reduced compared with the business-as-usual scenario (BAU), and the integrated control scenario (RIS) had the best emission reduction effect. From the results of the synergistic emission reduction elasticity coefficient method and coordinate system method, the synergistic effects of air pollutants and greenhouse gases under different control scenarios were observed, and the synergistic effects were optimal in the RIS scenario. In the future, Beijing should actively adopt comprehensive control measures and coordinate various emission reduction measures, laying the foundation for collaborative governance of pollution reduction and carbon reduction and green low-carbon economic and social transformation as soon as possible.