Analysis of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Anhui Province based on scenario analysis

In order to conduct energy consumption and carbon emission prediction analysis at the regional level, energy consumption and carbon emissions in Anhui Province were taken as the research object. By constructing a LEAP Anhui prediction model, three scenarios including baseline scenario (BAS), development planning scenario (DPS), and energy conservation and emission reduction scenario (ERS), were designed to predict three different development paths in Anhui Province. The prediction results show that by 2035, the total energy consumption under BAS scenario will reach 2.3459×10⁸ t (energy consumption is calculated based on standard coal), and compared to BAS scenario, the total energy consumption under DPS and ERS scenarios will decrease by 20.6% and 30.7%, respectively. The total energy consumption under ERS scenario will reach its peak in 2030, with a peak of 1.6416×10⁸ t. Under BAS scenario, the total carbon emissions in Anhui Province will reach 5.122×10⁸ t by 2035, with an average annual growth rate of 2.6%. Under DPS and ERS scenarios, the total carbon emissions will peak in 2030 and 2025, with 3.891×10⁸ t and 3.572×10⁸ t, respectively, both of which were able to fulfill China's commitment to achieve carbon peak before 2030. Based on the carbon constraint target, an optimization analysis was conducted on the energy structure of Anhui Province. Under the constraint path, the proportion of clean energy allocated to the three major systems is 39.3% for the tertiary industry, 23.3% for residential living, and 37.4% for the secondary industry. The minimum demand for clean energy is 1.07×10¹⁸ J, accounting for 20.6% of the total energy demand.