Influencing factors and scenario analysis of carbon emissions in seven cities along the Yellow River basin in Inner Mongolia

Under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the high-quality economic development of seven cities along the Yellow River basin in Inner Mongolia is a key way to realize the high-quality development of the region. In order to explore the influencing factors of carbon emissions and predict the peak of carbon emissions, the panel data of seven cities along the Yellow River basin in Inner Mongolia from 2005 to 2022 was selected, and the Ridge regression and the extended STIRPAT model were used to study the six influencing factors, including population size, urbanization rate, and GDP per capita, as well as the interaction of them, on the carbon emissions of the seven cities. Based on scenario analysis, the trends and peak levels of carbon emissions of the seven cities from 2023 to 2035 were predicted. The results show that: from 2005 to 2022, the carbon emissions of seven cities showed a fluctuating upward trend; the increase in population size, urbanization rate, and GDP per capita can lead to an increase in carbon emissions, while the reduction in energy intensity and carbon intensity can slow the increase in carbon emissions. The interaction of urbanization rate with GDP per capita can lead to a further increase in carbon emissions of the seven cities, while the interaction of population size and GDP per capita, and the interaction of energy intensity and industrial structure can effectively curb the increase in carbon emissions in the region; the trend of changes in carbon emissions of the seven cities have bigger differences under six different forecast scenarios, under both the high carbon and benchmark scenarios, carbon emissions will not peak by 2030, while the other four scenarios will all peak carbon emissions by 2030. The order of carbon emission reduction effectiveness under these scenarios is as follows: comprehensive low-carbon scenario, energy intensity reduction scenario, carbon emission intensity reduction scenario, and industrial structure optimization scenario. Therefore, the comprehensive optimization of industrial structure, the development of clean energy, and the breakthrough of green industrial technology are the optimal strategies for achieving the synergistic development goals of economy, energy conservation and emission reduction in the seven cities along the Yellow River basin in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.