Dynamic evolution and influencing factors of land use carbon emissions in Chongqing based on STIRPAT-GWR model

Exploring the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of land use carbon emissions in Chongqing can provide a scientific reference for further optimizing land use structure and implementing differentiated carbon and pollution reduction policies. Based on three periods of land cover data from 2000 to 2020, the regional differences and spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of carbon emissions in Chongqing were revealed. The impact of socio-economic factors on spatial heterogeneity of carbon emissions was explored by integrating the STIRPAT model and the geographically weighted regression (GWP) model. The results showed that the net carbon emissions of Chongqing increased by a total of 37.2314 million tons from 2000 to 2020. Its temporal changes could be divided into a sharp increase stage and a slow increase stage, and there was still an imbalance between land use carbon sinks and carbon sources. The overall distribution pattern of net carbon emissions in Chongqing was characterized by a pattern of "high in the center and low on both wings". The growth of net carbon emissions in the main urban areas was the most severe, while it showed a slight increase in all districts and counties of the southeast in Chongqing. There was a significant spatial difference in the growth of net carbon emissions in the northeast. The factors influencing land use carbon emissions presented a strong spatial heterogeneity. The carbon emission intensity and per capita GDP were the key leading factors, followed by urban population size, general budget expenditure of local finance, and industrial structure. The intensity of carbon emissions had a more significant impact in the northeast of Chongqing, and the size of the urban population had a greater positive effect in the main metropolitan areas.