Prediction of carbon emissions of four provinces in the Yangtze River delta region based on STIRPAT model

The relationship between population, per capita gross domestic product, urbanization level, energy consumption intensity, energy structure, the proportion of added value of secondary industry, and carbon emission of four provinces in the Yangtze River delta region were quantitatively analyzed by using the ridge regression method based on STIRPAT model, respectively. Three scenarios were set to analyze the development trend of carbon emissions of the four provinces. The results showed that the variable with the most significant impact on carbon emissions in Anhui Province was energy intensity. For every increase of 1%, carbon emissions would decrease by 0.524%. The independent variable with the most significant impact on carbon emissions in the other three provinces was per capita GDP. For every increase of 1%, the carbon emissions would increase by 1.734%, 1.434% and 1.355% in Jiangsu Province, Shanghai Municipality and Zhejiang Province, respectively. The four provinces would reach their CO₂ peaks in 2035, 2030 and 2025 under the baseline, low-carbon and enhanced low-carbon scenarios, respectively. Population growth rate, economic development level and energy intensity would be the main factors affecting the future carbon emissions in the four regions of the Yangtze River Delta. It was suggested that the four provinces in the Yangtze River Delta region formulate phased and regionally differentiated carbon peak targets. Anhui Province, highly dependent on coal, should build a diversified low-carbon energy system and take advantage of the abundant natural resources in the eastern part of the Yangtze River Delta region to undertake labor-intensive industries. Shanghai Municipality, Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province should increase scientific and technological innovation to help industrial transformation and upgrading, control the population reasonably, and enhance the citizens' awareness of environmental protection.