The spatio-temporal transition and driving mechanism of the coupling coordination of the CE-GH system in China's provincial regions

Exploring the coordinated development relationship between carbon emissions and green high-quality development under the perspective of new quality productivity is of great significance to realize innovation-driven low-carbon transformation and high-quality development. Based on the mechanism of carbon emission-green high-quality development (CE-GH) coupling and coordination, 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China are selected as research samples from 2012 to 2022, and the coupling and coordination model, Kernel density estimation, exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis, quantile regression, and optimal parameter geodetector are applied to study the CE-GH system coupling and coordination spatio-temporal divergence pattern, leaping law, and driving mechanism. The results show that: the coupling coordination is evolving in a dysfunctional→coordinated time sequence, and the space forms a concave pattern of eastern leading-central lagging-western catching up, which manifests a composite situation of cross-border cross-level leaping and overall optimization-local differentiation coexisting; exploratory spatio-temporal analysis reveals that, the southeast and northwest regions have time paths>1, local dynamics, and southwest is stable; the curvature is>1, and the coupling coordination is markedly migrating, with a synergistic growth of 53.4%, and positive synergistic growth accounting for 53.4%, positive synergistic growth mainly in the central and western part of the country, negative synergistic in the east. The spatio-temporal leap shows that most of the regions belong to the leap type Ⅳ (92.4% of spatio-temporal variation), the local spatial structure shows path dependence and locking characteristics, the spatio-temporal network pattern is dominated by positive correlation (86.2%), and the negative correlation shows that there is a certain degree of spatial and temporal competition; the leap mode and driving mechanism evolves from the northwest to the southeast, and there are the following patterns of government-human resources, industry-technology, government-human resources-society, industry-technology-data There are four kinds of leapfrog driving modes: government-human, industry-technology, government-human, industry-society, and industry-technology-data, and the driving effect is stronger than that of a single factor. In the future, based on the driving mechanism of different leaping modes, regional synergy strategies can be formulated differently in terms of policy manpower optimization, industrial technology upgrading, digital innovation, etc., so as to realize the coordinated development of CE-GH coupling.