天津市生活垃圾处理碳排放时间变化特征及影响因素

郭宇杰; 龚亚萍; 邹玉飞; 赵颖; 吕茳芏; 张心怡

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210334

天津市生活垃圾处理碳排放时间变化特征及影响因素

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210334

1.
华北水利水电大学环境与市政工程学院
2.
中国环境科学研究院水环境管理研究室
3.
天津市城市管理研究中心

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目（2019YFC1903901）

详细信息

作者简介:
郭宇杰（1973—），女，副教授，博士，主要从事污染物治理与资源化研究，guoyujie@ncwu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
赵颖（1981—），女，研究员，博士，主要从事固体废物环境影响、资源化利用及水处理技术研究，zhaoyhky@163.com

中图分类号: X705
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-07-16
- 网络出版日期: 2022-06-07

Temporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions from municipal solid waste treatment in Tianjin

1.
School of Environmental and Municipal Engineering, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power
2.
Water Environmental Management and Research Center, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
3.
Tianjin Urban Management Research Center

摘要

摘要:
控制生活垃圾处理产生的温室气体已成为碳减排的重点方向之一。参考《省级温室气体清单编制指南（试行）》推荐方法核算了天津市2009—2018年生活垃圾处理碳排放量，分析碳排放时间变化特征，并采用改进Kaya恒等式和LMDI加和分解法的碳排放影响因素分解恒等式，分析天津市生活垃圾处理碳排放的影响因素。结果表明：2009—2018年天津市生活垃圾处理碳排放量呈现先降后增的趋势，碳排放量主要来自填埋处理；影响碳排放的因素中，经济产出效应（ΔY）对生活垃圾处理碳排放的驱动作用最大，碳排放强度效应（ΔCF）次之，生活垃圾排放强度效应（ΔWI）和生活垃圾处理结构强度（ΔWS）对碳排放具有负向作用。控制生活垃圾产生量、增加垃圾焚烧处理占比以及提高填埋场甲烷回收率是未来主要的减排方向。
- 生活垃圾处理 /
- 碳排放 /
- 时间变化特征 /
- Kaya-LMDI方法
Abstract:
At present, the control of greenhouse gases generated by municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment has become one of the key directions of carbon emission reduction. The carbon emissions of MSW treatment in Tianjin from 2009 to 2018 were calculated according to the estimation formula recommended by Guidelines for the Preparation of Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories (trial), and the temporal variation characteristic of carbon emissions was analyzed. What′s more, the influencing factors of carbon emissions from MSW treatment in Tianjin were analyzed by using the decomposition identity of influencing factors of carbon emission combined with the improved Kaya identity and LMDI addition decomposition method. The results showed that the carbon emissions of MSW treatment in Tianjin decreased first and then increased from 2009 to 2018, and the carbon emissions were mainly from landfill treatment. Among the factors affecting carbon emissions, the economic output effect (ΔY) had the largest driving effect on carbon emissions of MSW treatment, followed by the carbon emission intensity effect (ΔCF). The MSW discharge intensity effect (ΔWI) and the MSW treatment structure intensity (ΔWS) had a negative effect on carbon emissions. It was proposed that controlling the production of MSW, increasing the proportion of waste incineration treatment and improving the methane recovery rate of the landfill were the main emission reduction directions in the future.
- domestic waste treatment /
- carbon emissions /
- temporal variation characteristic /
- Kaya-LMDI method

HTML全文

图 1 2009—2018年天津市生活垃圾处理量

Figure 1. MSW treatment in Tianjin from 2009 to 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2009—2018年天津市生活垃圾处理碳排放各分解因素贡献值

Figure 2. Contribution value of each decomposition factor of carbon emissions from MSW treatment in Tianjin from 2009 to 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 生活垃圾处理碳排放量与生活垃圾排放强度变化趋势

Figure 3. Annual variation trend of carbon emissions and domestic waste emission intensity in MSW treatment

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 天津市城市化率与生活垃圾产生量、高碳含量垃圾占比变化趋势

Figure 4. Annual trend of urbanization rate, domestic waste production and high carbon content waste proportion in Tianjin

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图 5 天津市碳排放量与人口数变化趋势

Figure 5. Trend of carbon emissions and population in Tianjin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 生活垃圾处理碳排放量核算数据来源

Table 1. Source of carbon emission accounting data for MSW treatment

活动水平数据	单位	数据来源
固体废物产生量	万t/a	《天津市固体废物污染防治公告》
城市生活垃圾物理组成		《天津市城市生活垃圾调查总结报告》
固体废物填埋处理率	%	《天津市固体废物污染防治公告》
甲烷回收量	万t/a	天津市城市管理委员会
生活垃圾焚烧量	万t/a	《天津市固体废物污染防治公告》
人口数	人	《天津市统计年鉴》
城市化率	%	《天津市统计年鉴》
地区生产总值	亿元	《天津市统计年鉴》

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2009—2018年天津市生活垃圾物理组成统计

Table 2. Statistics of physical composition of MSW in Tianjin from 2009 to 2018 %

年份	厨余类	纸类	橡塑类	其他
2009	60.31	11.49	14.91	13.29
2010	62.40	11.37	15.51	10.72
2011	61.49	11.81	16.78	9.92
2012	62.21	11.93	15.39	10.47
2013	61.27	12.74	16.92	9.07
2014	60.82	13.01	17.58	8.59
2015	60.80	13.60	17.63	7.97
2016	61.06	13.78	18.07	7.09
2017	60.09	14.25	18.85	6.81
2018	58.94	14.09	19.88	7.09
注：数据来源于《天津市城市生活垃圾调查总结报告》。

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表 3 2009—2018年天津市生活垃圾处理碳排放量

Table 3. Carbon emissions from MSW treatment in Tianjin from 2009 to 2018 万 t/a

年份	填埋处理（以CH₄计）	焚烧处理				总碳排放量^1）
年份	填埋处理（以CH₄计）	CO₂排放量	CH₄排放量	N₂O排放量	小计^1）	总碳排放量^1）
2009	4.54	2.42	0.001 32	0.000 46	2.59	98.00
2010	4.03	2.85	0.001 62	0.000 54	3.05	87.74
2011	3.93	3.62	0.002 02	0.000 69	3.88	86.45
2012	2.68	3.99	0.002 31	0.000 75	4.28	60.59
2013	3.52	4.28	0.002 38	0.000 82	4.59	78.47
2014	4.22	5.81	0.002 82	0.001 15	6.22	94.94
2015	4.77	6.23	0.003 13	0.001 22	6.68	106.78
2016	5.15	7.81	0.004 11	0.001 52	8.37	116.55
2017	7.95	7.97	0.004 16	0.001 55	8.54	175.45
2018	7.32	8.29	0.004 31	0.001 61	8.88	162.57
1）折合成CO₂当量。

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表 4 2009—2018年天津市生活垃圾处理碳排放各分解因素贡献率

Table 4. Contribution rate of each decomposition factor of carbon emissions from MSW treatment in Tianjin from 2009 to 2018 %

年份	ΔCF	ΔWS	ΔWI	ΔY	ΔU	ΔP
2009—2010	96.60	89.88	86.52	−104.45	−17.67	−50.88
2010—2011	−102.11	396.29	1200.12	−1031.66	−80.39	−282.25
2011—2012	60.90	38.89	39.82	−24.06	−3.66	−11.90
2012—2013	69.70	22.83	−34.70	24.19	2.15	15.83
2013—2014	137.52	−73.07	−11.66	29.81	1.73	15.66
2014—2015	44.00	2.10	10.89	22.58	3.71	16.73
2015—2016	43.13	−37.08	4.44	74.34	4.01	11.15
2016—2017	32.51	35.35	22.64	10.33	0.00	−0.82
2017—2018	13.63	33.64	67.74	−9.24	−3.48	−2.30
2009—2012	63.88	61.73	85.91	−73.24	−9.21	−29.07
2012—2018	66.41	0.78	−5.50	26.36	1.96	9.99
2009—2018	70.17	−58.46	−92.49	121.07	12.59	47.12

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