The impact of land use change on ecosystem service value in karst mountain area
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摘要:
研究土地利用变化与生态系统服务价值（ESV）的演变对优化喀斯特脆弱山区的土地资源配置和推进生态恢复具有重要意义。以贵州省瓮安县为例，利用2001年、2011年、2019年3期遥感影像数据，通过CA-Markov模型预测2027年土地利用格局，定量分析研究区2001—2027年土地利用和ESV的时空演变趋势。结果表明：瓮安县土地利用类型以林地和耕地为主，耕地向林地的转移较为剧烈，林地和建设用地面积持续增加，建设用地和水域的动态度最大；ESV总体呈上升趋势，耕地向林地转移是ESV增加的主要贡献项，ESV增加区域主要发生在瓮安县西部和东北部地区，未来ESV低值区仍分布在中部城镇地区；服务类型产生的ESV主要以土壤形成与保护服务为主，其次为水源涵养服务和生物多样性保护；林地和耕地是引起研究区ESV变化的敏感因子，研究区ESV对改进的价值系数缺乏弹性。研究期内瓮安县土地利用结构变化显著，生态系统服务价值明显提升。
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关键词:
- 土地利用变化 /
- 生态系统服务价值(ESV) /
- 时空演变 /
- 敏感性分析 /
- 喀斯特山区
Abstract:The study of land use change and the evolution of ecosystem service value (ESV) is of great significance for optimizing the allocation of land resources in fragile karst mountainous areas and realizing ecological restoration. Taking Weng'an County in Guizhou Province as an example, the remote sensing image data from 2001, 2011, and 2019 were used to predict the land use pattern in 2027 through CA-Markov model, and quantitatively analyze the spatio-temporal evolution trend of land use and ESV in the study area from 2001 to 2027. The results showed that the land use types in Weng'an County were mainly forest land and arable land. The transfer of arable land to forest land was relatively intense. The area of forest land and construction land continued to increase, and the dynamic degree of construction land and water body was the largest; ESV was generally increasing, and the transfer of arable land to forest land was the main contributor to the increase of ESV. The increase of ESV mainly occurred in the western and northeastern regions. In the future, low ESV areas would still be distributed in the central urban areas; ESV generated by the service type was mainly based on soil formation and protection services, followed by water sources conservation service and biodiversity protection; forest land and cultivated land were sensitive factors that caused ESV changes in the study area, and ESV of the study area was inelastic to improve the value coefficient. During the study period, the land use structure of Weng'an County had changed significantly, and the ESV increased significantly.
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图 5 瓮安县2001—2027年ESV空间分布
Figure 5. Spatial distribution map of ESV in Weng'an County from 2001 to 2027
图 6 瓮安县2001—2027年基于服务类型的ESV变化
注：图中数字为ESV，单位为亿元。
Figure 6. Changes of ESV based on service types in Weng'an County from 2001 to 2027
表 1 瓮安县土地利用类型ESV当量因子
Table 1. ESV coefficient of land use types in Weng'an County
元/hm2 服务类型 森林 草地 耕地 水域 未利用地 气体调节 4 506.19 1 029.99 643.74 0.00 0.00 气候调节 3 476.21 1 158.74 1 145.86 592.24 0.00 水源涵养 4 119.95 1 029.99 772.49 26 238.91 38.62 土壤形成与保护 5 021.19 2 510.59 1 879.73 12.87 25.75 废物处理 1 686.60 1 686.60 2 111.47 23 406.45 12.87 生物多样性保护 4 197.20 1 403.36 914.11 3 205.83 437.74 食物生产 128.75 386.25 1 287.48 128.75 12.87 原材料 3 347.46 64.37 128.75 12.87 0.00 娱乐文化 4 506.19 1 029.99 643.74 0.00 0.00 
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表 2 瓮安县2001—2027年各土地利用类型面积
Table 2. Area of various land use types in Weng'an County, 2001-2027
hm2 年份 草地 耕地 建设用地 林地 水域 未利用地 2001 6 070.05 108 194.04 2 293.65 78 806.79 710.01 433.98 2011 5 623.83 83 534.94 4 919.76 99 102.69 2 619.27 708.03 2019 4 058.89 61 332.07 7 904.22 119 704.48 3 187.38 321.47 2027 4 562.65 55 566.80 8 937.04 123 826.82 3 194.09 421.13
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表 3 瓮安县2001—2027年土地利用动态度
Table 3. Dynamic degree of land use in Weng'an County from 2001 to 2027
% 时期 草地 耕地 建设用地 林地 水域 未利用地 2001—2011年 −0.74 −2.28 11.45 2.58 26.89 6.31 2011—2019年 −3.48 −3.32 7.58 2.60 2.71 −6.82 2019—2027年 1.55 −1.18 1.63 0.43 0.03 3.87 2001—2027年 −0.96 −1.87 11.14 2.20 13.46 −0.11
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表 4 瓮安县2001—2027年不同土地利用类型ESV及占比
Table 4. ESV and proportion of different land use types in Weng'an County from 2001 to 2027
土地
利用
类型ESV/亿元 占比/% 2001年 2011年 2019年 2027年 2001年 2011年 2019年 2027年 林地 22.170 27.879 33.675 34.834 67.624 74.565 81.344 82.750 草地 0.566 0.524 0.378 0.425 1.726 1.402 0.914 1.010 耕地 9.625 7.432 5.456 4.944 29.361 19.877 13.180 11.743 水域 0.420 1.550 1.886 1.890 1.282 4.146 4.557 4.491 未利
用地0.002 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.007 0.010 0.004 0.005 合计 32.783 37.389 41.398 42.096 100 100 100 100
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表 5 瓮安县2001—2027年敏感性系数
Table 5. Sensitivity coefficient of Weng'an County from 2001 to 2027
土地利用类型 2001年 2011年 2019年 2027年 森林 0.676 24 0.745 65 0.813 45 0.827 50 草地 0.017 26 0.014 02 0.009 14 0.010 10 耕地 0.293 61 0.198 77 0.131 80 0.117 43 水体 0.012 82 0.041 46 0.045 57 0.044 91 未利用地 0.000 07 0.000 10 0.000 04 0.000 05
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