基于敏感目标被访问概率法的长江口水域溢油风险区划研究

陈昊; 卢士强; 邵一平; 王彪; 刘扬

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210648

基于敏感目标被访问概率法的长江口水域溢油风险区划研究

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210648

陈昊^{1, 2, 3,},
卢士强^{1, 2, 3},
邵一平^{1, 2, 3},
王彪^{1, 2, 3},
刘扬^{1, 3}

1.
上海市环境科学研究院
2.
长江生态环境保护修复联合研究上海驻点工作组
3.
上海水环境模拟与水生态修复工程技术研究中心

基金项目: 长江生态环境保护修复联合研究（第一期）驻点跟踪研究项目（2019-LHYJ-01-0215-01）；上海市中央引导地方科技发展专项基金项目（YDZX20193100004649）

详细信息

作者简介:
陈昊（1988—），男，工程师，硕士，主要从事水环境管理研究，chenh@saes.sh.cn

中图分类号: X55
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-11-10

Study on oil spill risk zoning in the Yangtze River Estuary based on the visited probability method of sensitive targets

CHEN Hao^{1, 2, 3
,},
LU Shiqiang^{1, 2, 3},
SHAO Yiping^{1, 2, 3},
WANG Biao^{1, 2, 3},
LIU Yang^{1, 3}

1.
Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences
2.
Shanghai Resident Working Group of the Joint Research on the Protection and Restoration of the Ecological Environment of the Yangtze River
3.
Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Water Environment Simulation and Ecological Restoration

摘要

摘要:
以上海市长江口主要环境敏感目标为研究对象，利用Oilmap被访问概率模型计算青草沙集中式饮用水水源地、东滩湿地国家级自然保护区、城市岸线旅游区域、渔业捕捞区等长江口主要生态环境敏感目标的溢油风险概率，构建了基于溢油发生概率、影响因子、气象水文条件、敏感目标敏感系数的溢油风险指数体系，形成了长江口溢油风险二级分区区划。根据溢油风险指数，划定上海长江口水域溢油高风险区、较高风险区、中风险区、低风险区4个级别，各风险级别面积分别为335、2 375、5 695和3 068 km²。针对长江口水源地溢油风险防控区等4类重点防控区，提出分区分级分类防控要求建议，明确不同分区首要防护目标，并按分级管控要求提出不同区域预警防控等级。
- 长江口 /
- 被访问概率 /
- 溢油 /
- 风险区划 /
- 风险管控
Abstract:
Taking the main environmental sensitive targets in the Yangtze River Estuary in Shanghai as the research object, the Oilmap visited probability model was used to calculate the oil spill risk probability of the main eco-environmental sensitive targets in the Yangtze River Estuary, such as Qingcaosha centralized drinking water source, Dongtan Wetland National Nature Reserve, urban coastline tourism area and fishery fishing area. The oil spill risk index system was established based on the probability of oil spill occurrence, impact factors, meteorological and hydrological conditions and the sensitivity coefficients of sensitive target, to form a secondary zoning of oil spill risk in the Yangtze Estuary. According to the calculation results of oil spill risk index, the oil spill risk zoning of the Yangtze River Estuary in Shanghai was divided into four levels: >5 (highest risk area), 3-5 (higher risk area), 1-3 (medium risk area) and <1 (low risk area). The area of each risk level was 335, 2375, 5695 and 3068 km², respectively. For four key prevention and control areas, such as the oil spill risk prevention and control area in the water source area of the Yangtze River Estuary, some suggestions on zoning and classification requirements for prevention and control were put forward, the primary protection objectives of different zones were defined, and early warning, prevention and control levels in different regions were put forward according to the hierarchical control requirements, so as to provide basic decision-making basis for oil spill risk prevention and control management in the Yangtze River Estuary.
- Yangtze River Estuary /
- visited probability /
- oil spill /
- risk zoning /
- risk control

HTML全文

图 1 长江口水域溢油风险指数空间分布

Figure 1. Spatial distribution of oil spill risk index in the Yangtze River Estuary

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图 2 长江口水域溢油风险区划一级区示意

Figure 2. First level zoning of oil spill risk zoning in the Yangtze River Estuary

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图 3 长江口水域溢油风险区划二级区示意

Figure 3. Secondary zoning diagram of oil spill risk zoning in the Yangtze River Estuary

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表 1 长江口水域溢油风险影响因素指标

Table 1. Influencing factors and indicators of oil spill risk in the Yangtze River Estuary

指数目标	指数类型	一级指标	二级指标
溢油风险指数	溢油状况	影响因子	溢油规模
			油品类型
			持续时间
		发生概率	发生概率
	客观因素	气象条件	风速
		气象条件	风向
		水文条件	水温
			流速
			流向
		岸线条件	岸线类型
	敏感目标状况	敏感系数	敏感目标类型
			敏感程度
			社会经济损失
			生态环境损失
		被访问概率	被影响速度

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表 2 不同敏感目标的敏感系数

Table 2. Sensitivity coefficient of different sensitive targets

青草沙取水口	陈行水库取水口	东风西沙水库取水口	九段沙湿地	崇明东滩	大小金山三岛	金山城市沙滩	碧海金沙	南汇东滩	长江口捕捞区
50	50	50	50	50	20	5	5	5	5

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表 3 长江口水域溢油风险区划二级区划分结果统计

Table 3. Statistics of secondary division results of oil spill risk zoning in the Yangtze River Estuary km²　

一级区	二级区	面积
长江口水源安全敏感区	较高风险区	344
长江口水源安全敏感区	中风险区	862
长江口自然生态敏感区	高风险区	335
	较高风险区	799
	中风险区	1 937
	低风险区	1 462
杭州湾城市生态敏感区	较高风险区	105
	中风险区	431
	低风险区	366
近岸海洋渔业敏感区	较高风险区	1 127
	中风险区	2 465
	低风险区	1 240

下载: 导出CSV

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