黄河流域资源型城市碳生态安全差异测度、来源分解与时空演进

蒋毓琪; 杨怡康; 田文博; 陈珂

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20240007

黄河流域资源型城市碳生态安全差异测度、来源分解与时空演进

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20240007

1.
山西大同大学商学院
2.
沈阳农业大学经济管理学院

基金项目: 国家社会科学基金一般项目（20BGL173）；教育部人文社会科学研究规划青年基金项目（20YJC630052）；山西省哲学社会科学规划课题（2023YY250）

详细信息

作者简介:
蒋毓琪（1983—），男，副教授，主要从事资源与环境经济研究，jiangyuqi1913@163.com

通讯作者:
陈珂（1972—），女，教授，主要从事生态经济与环境经济研究，chenkeyaya@163.com

中图分类号: X321
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-01-03
- 录用日期: 2024-04-18
- 修回日期: 2024-02-20

Difference measurement, source decomposition and spatial-temporal evolution of carbon ecological security in resource-based cities of the Yellow River Basin

1.
School of Business, Shanxi Datong University
2.
College of Economics and Management, Shenyang Agricultural University

摘要

摘要:
黄河流域作为我国重要的“能源流域”，分析其资源型城市碳生态安全空间差异、差异来源与动态演进，有助于优化全流域碳生态安全布局。在构建黄河流域资源型城市碳生态安全评价指标体系的基础上，选用TOPSIS模型与Dagum基尼系数，评价其2012—2021年碳生态安全水平并分析其差异来源，进一步引入核密度估计法探究时空演变特征。结果表明：黄河流域资源型城市碳生态安全水平逐年提升且呈现“小幅提升—快速上涨”的特征，上游资源型城市碳生态安全水平高于中、下游。不同地区资源型城市碳生态安全的空间非均衡显著，区域间差异是影响碳生态安全总体差异的主要来源，超变密度对其整体差异影响增强。依据核密度估计结果，不同地区资源型城市碳安全水平差异趋于缩小，但中游差异性变小不明显。结合“双碳”目标，黄河流域不同地区资源型城市应制定不同区域碳生态安全目标和举措，实现全域碳生态安全平衡。
- 资源型城市 /
- 碳生态安全 /
- 地区差异 /
- 时空演进 /
- 黄河流域
Abstract:
The Yellow River Basin is regarded as an important "energy basin" in China. The spatial difference, sources of difference and dynamic evolution of carbon ecological security in resource-based cities were analyzed to optimize the overall layout of the basin's carbon ecological security. An evaluation index system for carbon ecological security of resource-based cities in the Yellow River Basin was constructed, and the TOPSIS model and Dagum Gini coefficient were selected to evaluate the level of carbon ecological security from 2012 to 2021 and analyze the sources of difference for carbon ecological security. The characteristics of spatial-temporal evolution were explored by the kernel density estimation method. The results showed that the carbon ecological security level had been increasing in the resource-based cities of the Yellow River Basin year by year, which had the characteristic of "slight increase - rapid increase", and the carbon ecological security level in the resource-based cities of the upstream region was higher than that in the middle and downstream regions. The spatial imbalance of carbon ecological security in the resource-based cities of different regions was very significant; the regional difference was the main source of the overall difference in carbon ecological security, and the impact of super variable density on the overall difference was increasing. According to the estimation results of the kernel density, the difference in carbon security levels was gradually narrowing among the resource-based cities in different regions of the Yellow River Basin, but the difference in the middle reaches was not obvious. Based on the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals", the resource-based cities in different regions of the Yellow River Basin should formulate different regional carbon ecological security goals and measures to achieve a balance of carbon ecological security across the entire region.
- resource-based city /
- carbon ecological security /
- regional differences /
- spatial-temporal evolution /
- Yellow River Basin

HTML全文

图 1 黄河流域资源型城市分区示意

Figure 1. Geographical regions of resource-based cities in the Yellow River Basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 黄河流域不同地区资源型城市碳生态安全水平

Figure 2. Carbon ecological security level of resource-based cities in different regions of the Yellow River Basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 不同地区资源型城市碳生态安全核密度

Figure 3. Kernel density of carbon ecological security in resource-based cities of different regions

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表 1 资源型城市碳生态安全评价指标体系

Table 1. Evaluation index system of carbon ecological security in resource-based cities

目标层	要素层	指标层	属性	权重
生态-环境系统（A）	生态建设（A₁）	森林覆盖率（A₁₁）	+	0.023
		造林面积（A₁₂）	+	0.032
		人均公园绿地面积（A₁₃）	+	0.010
		人均水资源量（A₁₄）	+	0.024
		建成区绿化覆盖率（A₁₅）	+	0.015
		碳汇量（A₁₆）	+	0.109
	环境破坏（A₂）	单位GDP碳排放量（A₂₁）	−	0.114
		单位GDP工业SO₂排放量（A₂₂）	−	0.048
		单位GDP工业烟粉尘排放量（ A₂₃）	−	0.053
		单位GDP能耗（A₂₄ ）	−	0.067
		单位GDP耗水量（A₂₅ ）	−	0.026
	环境治理（A₃）	节能环保支出（A₃₁）	+	0.028
		生活垃圾无害化处理率（A₃₂）	+	0.013
		工业固体废物综合利用率（A₃₃）	+	0.019
		废水达标排放率（A₃₄）	+	0.022
		生活污水处理率（A₃₅）	+	0.013
		空气质量优良率（A₃₆）	+	0.009
		环境突发事件次数（A₃₇）	−	0.006
社会-经济系统（B）	经济发展（B₁）	GDP（B₁₁）	+	0.033
		能源工业投资（B₁₂）	−	0.031
		固定资产投资（B₁₃）	+	0.027
		人均GDP（B₁₄）	+	0.016
	产业结构（B₂）	第二产业增加值占GDP比例（B₂₁）	−	0.055
		原煤消费量占比（B₂₂）	−	0.034
		第三产业增加值占GDP比例（B₂₃）	+	0.015
	社会发展（B₃）	城市化率（B₃₁）	−	0.018
		人口密度（B₃₂）	−	0.014
		居民收入增长率（B₃₃）	−	0.025
	绿色转型（B₄）	环境规制（B₄₁）	+	0.036
		技术创新（B₄₂）	+	0.048
		R&D经费投资（B₄₃）	+	0.017
注：+表示正向关系，−表示负向关系。

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表 2 不同地区资源型城市的碳生态安全基尼系数

Table 2. Dagum Gini coefficient of carbon ecological security in resource-based cities of different regions

年份	整体碳生态安全基尼系数	不同地区基尼系数			地区间基尼系数差异
年份	整体碳生态安全基尼系数	上游	中游	下游	上游—中游	上游—下游	中游—下游
2012	0.287	0.089	0.149	0.168	0.270	0.314	0.235
2013	0.270	0.085	0.143	0.155	0.258	0.292	0.234
2014	0.261	0.080	0.137	0.152	0.238	0.278	0.232
2015	0.249	0.077	0.131	0.142	0.224	0.277	0.221
2016	0.251	0.073	0.129	0.129	0.211	0.264	0.199
2017	0.236	0.064	0.122	0.132	0.213	0.237	0.196
2018	0.210	0.061	0.121	0.125	0.192	0.216	0.182
2019	0.200	0.056	0.122	0.120	0.194	0.229	0.176
2020	0.178	0.047	0.118	0.117	0.189	0.219	0.171
2021	0.162	0.046	0.115	0.113	0.182	0.199	0.170

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表 3 不同地区资源型城市的碳生态安全基尼系数及分解结果

Table 3. Dagum Gini coefficient and decomposition results for carbon ecological security in resource-based cities of different regions

年份	整体碳生态安全基尼系数	基尼系数			贡献率/%
年份	整体碳生态安全基尼系数	地区内	地区间	超变密度	地区内	地区间	超变密度
2012	0.287	0.046	0.230	0.011	0.160	0.801	0.038
2013	0.270	0.044	0.213	0.013	0.163	0.789	0.048
2014	0.261	0.042	0.205	0.014	0.161	0.785	0.054
2015	0.249	0.041	0.192	0.016	0.165	0.771	0.064
2016	0.251	0.041	0.191	0.019	0.163	0.761	0.076
2017	0.236	0.040	0.178	0.018	0.169	0.754	0.076
2018	0.210	0.037	0.152	0.021	0.176	0.724	0.100
2019	0.200	0.039	0.139	0.022	0.195	0.695	0.110
2020	0.178	0.038	0.118	0.022	0.213	0.663	0.124
2021	0.162	0.036	0.103	0.023	0.222	0.636	0.142

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