Abstract: Polyethylene terephthalate(PET) drinking bottles are a kind of disposable plastic packaging, which are widely used with a short cycle and a large amount of waste. From the perspectives of saving resources, reducing carbon emissions and protecting the environment, the recycling of waste PET drinking bottles is of great significance. Based on the positive correlation between the output of PET bottled drinks and the consumption of PET bottles, the quantity response relationship among “total output of drinks - output of PET bottled drinks - production or consumption of PET bottles” was established. Combined with grey model, the waste PET drinking bottle production from 2020 to 2025 in China was predicted. According to the status of PET drinking bottles recycling and qualitative analysis of material metabolism, the main flow directions of waste PET drinking bottles were determined. Through questionnaire surveys and field measurements, the overall level of PET drinking bottles recycling in China at the present stage was calculated. The results showed that, from 2020 to 2025, the annual production of waste PET drinking bottles in China would be in the range of 3.7 million to 4.09 million tons, and they would mainly flow to the recycling system, kitchen waste treatment plants, landfills, waste incineration power plants and beaches. And the total proportion of waste PET drinking bottles flowing to kitchen waste treatment plants, landfills, waste incineration power plants and beaches would be less than 5%, that is, the recycling rate of waste PET drinking bottles would be more than 95% in China on the whole, being at a relatively high recycling level.