基于动态滑动窗口BP神经网络的水质时间序列预测

Prediction of water quality time series based on the dynamic sliding window BP neural network model

  • 摘要: 为提高BP神经网络(BPNN)模型对具有时间序列特征水质的预测精准度,采用主成分分析法对原始样本数据进行特征提取和降维,选取溶解性有机碳(DOC)浓度、总氮(TN)浓度和浊度作为水质预测指标,构建了具有3层网络结构的BPNN模型进行预测,并分析其预测性能。结果表明:DOC浓度、TN浓度和浊度的最佳训练集尺寸分别为60、60和90 d,最佳BPNN拓扑结构分别为9-12-1、8-6-1和7-13-1,经优化后的BPNN模型对DOC浓度、TN浓度和浊度的变化趋势整体预测效果较好;相比之下,BPNN模型对水中DOC浓度的预测效果显著优于TN浓度和浊度,其均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和相关系数(R)分别为0.040、0.66%和0.867。该模型对具有非线性特征的地表水水质预测具有较好的适用性,预测精度较高。

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the prediction precision of water quality having time series properties by BP neural network (BPNN), principal component analysis (PCA) was used for characteristic extraction and dimension reduction of the original data. Concentrations of dissolved organic compound (DOC) and total nitrogen (TN), and turbidity were selected as the water quality prediction indices, a three-layer BPNN model was established for prediction, and the prediction performance was analyzed. The results showed that the optimal training-set sizes of concentrations of DOC and TN, and turbidity were 60, 60, and 90 days, while the best BPNN topological structures were 9-12-1, 8-6-1 and 7-13-1, respectively. The optimized BPNN model exhibited favorable prediction performance on the variation trends of concentrations of DOC and TN, and turbidity. In contrast, the prediction performance of DOC by BPNN model was significantly better than that of TN and turbidity, with RMSE, MAPE, and R values of 0.040, 0.66% and 0.867, respectively. This model had a good applicability and precision for prediction of surface water qualities having non-linear characteristics.

     

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