天津市生活垃圾处理碳排放时间变化特征及影响因素

Temporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions from municipal solid waste treatment in Tianjin

  • 摘要: 控制生活垃圾处理产生的温室气体已成为碳减排的重点方向之一。参考《省级温室气体清单编制指南(试行)》推荐方法核算了天津市2009—2018年生活垃圾处理碳排放量,分析碳排放时间变化特征,并采用改进Kaya恒等式和LMDI加和分解法的碳排放影响因素分解恒等式,分析天津市生活垃圾处理碳排放的影响因素。结果表明:2009—2018年天津市生活垃圾处理碳排放量呈现先降后增的趋势,碳排放量主要来自填埋处理;影响碳排放的因素中,经济产出效应(ΔY)对生活垃圾处理碳排放的驱动作用最大,碳排放强度效应(ΔCF)次之,生活垃圾排放强度效应(ΔWI)和生活垃圾处理结构强度(ΔWS)对碳排放具有负向作用。控制生活垃圾产生量、增加垃圾焚烧处理占比以及提高填埋场甲烷回收率是未来主要的减排方向。

     

    Abstract: At present, the control of greenhouse gases generated by municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment has become one of the key directions of carbon emission reduction. The carbon emissions of MSW treatment in Tianjin from 2009 to 2018 were calculated according to the estimation formula recommended by Guidelines for the Preparation of Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories (trial), and the temporal variation characteristic of carbon emissions was analyzed. What′s more, the influencing factors of carbon emissions from MSW treatment in Tianjin were analyzed by using the decomposition identity of influencing factors of carbon emission combined with the improved Kaya identity and LMDI addition decomposition method. The results showed that the carbon emissions of MSW treatment in Tianjin decreased first and then increased from 2009 to 2018, and the carbon emissions were mainly from landfill treatment. Among the factors affecting carbon emissions, the economic output effect (ΔY) had the largest driving effect on carbon emissions of MSW treatment, followed by the carbon emission intensity effect (ΔCF). The MSW discharge intensity effect (ΔWI) and the MSW treatment structure intensity (ΔWS) had a negative effect on carbon emissions. It was proposed that controlling the production of MSW, increasing the proportion of waste incineration treatment and improving the methane recovery rate of the landfill were the main emission reduction directions in the future.

     

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