清水河流域生态系统服务评估及预测

Assessment and prediction of ecosystem services in Qingshui River Basin

  • 摘要: 城镇化扩张、农业活动和生态修复等人为因素给清水河流域土地格局和生态环境带来了显著改变,评估并预测未来的土地格局以及生态系统服务与价值对于流域生态可持续发展具有重要意义。基于CA-Markov模型和GIS软件,以预测+设计的方式通过InVEST模型模拟了未来生态系统服务与价值。结果显示:1)清水河流域2000—2018年单位面积碳储量、单位面积土壤保持量、单位面积产水量分别为100.68 t/hm2、800.62 t/hm2、57.88 mm,除碳储量呈减小趋势外,产水量和土壤保持量均呈增长趋势;2)2018年流域生态系统服务价值为24.42亿元,比2000年减少了2.2%,分别为该区2018年农林渔牧业总产值、GDP的2.31、0.78倍;3)未来在坡度大于15°的区域退耕还林条件下,除产水量显著减小外,流域碳储量、土壤保持量生态系统服务价值均显著提升。研究表明,近20年清水河流域在气候均质条件下,生态系统服务及其价值的提升仍然不显著甚至有所下降,但在大于15°陡坡上的植树造林措施能够有效改善这一趋势。

     

    Abstract: Rapid urbanization, agricultural activities and ecological restoration significantly altered land-use pattern and eco-environments of Qingshui River Basin. It is critical for assessing and projecting the future land-use patterns, ecosystem service and its values for ecologically sustainable areas. Based on the CA-Markov model and GIS software, the future ecosystem service and its values were simulated by using InVEST model in the way of prediction plus design. The results showed that: 1) In 2000, 2009 and 2018, the average values of carbon storage, soil conservation, and water yield in Qingshui River Basin approached approximately 100.68 t/hm2, 800.62 t/hm2, and 57.88 mm, respectively, exhibiting the increasing trends in water yield and soil conservation except for carbon storage which had a decreasing trend. 2) The total ecosystem service values in the study area reached approximately 2.44 billion yuan in 2018, with a 2.2% decrease compared with the level in 2000. This value was 2.31 times of the total output value of agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry, and 0.78 times of local gross domestic product (GDP). 3) As “Grain for Green” practices were implemented in the regions with >15° slopes, the ecosystem service values of carbon storage and soil conservation got pronouncedly improved, whereas water yield exhibited an obvious decreased trend. The research showed that under the condition of a homogeneous climate in Qingshui River Basin in the last 20 years, the ecosystem service and its values had not significantly increased or even declined. Specifically, the afforestation practices on steep slopes of >15° may help reverse the trend of ecological degradation in Qingshui River Basin.

     

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