雄安新区社会经济承载力评价指标体系构建与应用

Construction and appliction of evaluation index system of social and economic carrying capacity in Xiong'an New Area

  • 摘要: 通过分析雄安新区经济与社会发展状况,遵循“推广绿色低碳的生产生活方式”的新区规划与建设要求,选择经济发展、绿色生产、社会发展与绿色生活4个维度,运用相关性分析与主成分分析的定量方法,提炼出人均GDP、万元GDP水耗、城镇化率、地热资源取暖覆盖率等27个社会经济承载状况的主要特征指标,构建符合区域特征、能够反映社会经济系统之间协调发展程度的雄安新区社会经济承载力评价指标体系,并运用该指标体系对2014—2018年雄安新区的社会经济承载力进行评价。结果表明:雄安新区的社会经济承载力呈现稳步增长趋势,年均增长率为12.81%,尤其是2016年后新区提升了经济建设与社会发展速度,2017年加大了绿色生产与绿色生活的投资力度,使得2018年新区社会经济承载力明显增强,较2016年、2017年分别高37.66%、25.01%。提出了持续优化调整产业结构,形成绿色生产方式,加大环境治理与生态修复力度,推广绿色生活方式的社会经济承载力提升对策,以期为雄安新区社会经济的可持续发展提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Through analysis of the economic and social development of Xiong'an New Area, following its planning and construction requirements of "promoting green, low carbon production and lifestyle", from four dimensions of economic development, green production, social development and green life, 27 indicators inflecting the main characteristic indicators of the social and economic carrying capacity in the New Area, such as GDP per capita, water consumption per 10 000 yuan GDP, urbanization rate, coverage rate of geothermal resource heating, were extracted by the quantitative methods of correlation analysis and principal component analysis. An evaluation index system of the social and economic carrying capacity of Xiong'an New Area, which conformed to regional characteristics and could reflect the coordinated development degree between social and economic systems, was constructed and used to evaluate the social and economic carrying capacity of the New Area from 2014 to 2018. The results showed that the social and economic carrying capacity of the New Area had shown a steady upward trend, with an average annual growth rate of 12.81%. Especially after 2016, the speed of economic construction and social development had been improved, and investments in green production and green life increased in 2017. Thus the social and economic carrying capacity of the New Area in 2018 was significantly enhanced, 37.66% and 25.01% higher than that in 2016 and 2017 respectively. Finally, the promotion countermeasures were proposed to improve the social and economic carrying capacity of the New Area by sustainably optimizing and adjusting of industrial structure and forming a green production mode, strengthening environmental governance and ecological restoration and promoting a green lifestyle mode, so as to provide a reference for sustainable development of economy and society in the New Area.

     

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