基于敏感目标被访问概率法的长江口水域溢油风险区划研究

Study on oil spill risk zoning in the Yangtze River Estuary based on the visited probability method of sensitive targets

  • 摘要: 以上海市长江口主要环境敏感目标为研究对象,利用Oilmap被访问概率模型计算青草沙集中式饮用水水源地、东滩湿地国家级自然保护区、城市岸线旅游区域、渔业捕捞区等长江口主要生态环境敏感目标的溢油风险概率,构建了基于溢油发生概率、影响因子、气象水文条件、敏感目标敏感系数的溢油风险指数体系,形成了长江口溢油风险二级分区区划。根据溢油风险指数,划定上海长江口水域溢油高风险区、较高风险区、中风险区、低风险区4个级别,各风险级别面积分别为335、2 375、5 695和3 068 km2。针对长江口水源地溢油风险防控区等4类重点防控区,提出分区分级分类防控要求建议,明确不同分区首要防护目标,并按分级管控要求提出不同区域预警防控等级。

     

    Abstract: Taking the main environmental sensitive targets in the Yangtze River Estuary in Shanghai as the research object, the Oilmap visited probability model was used to calculate the oil spill risk probability of the main eco-environmental sensitive targets in the Yangtze River Estuary, such as Qingcaosha centralized drinking water source, Dongtan Wetland National Nature Reserve, urban coastline tourism area and fishery fishing area. The oil spill risk index system was established based on the probability of oil spill occurrence, impact factors, meteorological and hydrological conditions and the sensitivity coefficients of sensitive target, to form a secondary zoning of oil spill risk in the Yangtze Estuary. According to the calculation results of oil spill risk index, the oil spill risk zoning of the Yangtze River Estuary in Shanghai was divided into four levels: >5 (highest risk area), 3-5 (higher risk area), 1-3 (medium risk area) and <1 (low risk area). The area of each risk level was 335, 2375, 5695 and 3068 km2, respectively. For four key prevention and control areas, such as the oil spill risk prevention and control area in the water source area of the Yangtze River Estuary, some suggestions on zoning and classification requirements for prevention and control were put forward, the primary protection objectives of different zones were defined, and early warning, prevention and control levels in different regions were put forward according to the hierarchical control requirements, so as to provide basic decision-making basis for oil spill risk prevention and control management in the Yangtze River Estuary.

     

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