基于CLUE-S和InVEST模型的苏州市生境质量评估及预测

Habitat quality assessment and prediction in Suzhou based on CLUE-S and InVEST models

  • 摘要: 评估城市化进程中土地利用变化下的生境质量演变,对于构建综合生态规划体系、应对全球可持续发展的重大挑战具有重要意义。基于苏州市2010年和2018年遥感影像解译的土地利用数据和社会经济等数据,选取高程、坡度、到公路的距离、人口密度等驱动因子,采用CLUE-S模型模拟多情景下2030年土地利用变化,并通过生态系统服务评估与权衡(InVEST)模型评估过去并预测未来的生境质量时空演变,探讨土地利用变化对生境质量的影响。结果表明:最优拟合尺度为400 m×400 m,Kappa系数达到0.854 5,模型能够很好地模拟研究区未来的土地利用格局;苏州市2030年生态保护情景下的生境质量优于2018年,而2030年自然增长情景下的生境质量差于2010年和2018年;从空间分布看,苏州市中心城区、工业较集中和人口活动强度大的地区生境质量差,太湖周边等水系发达地区生境质量较好。因此,未来研究区在发展经济的同时,更要注重生态保护,实现高质量发展。

     

    Abstract: Assessing the evolution of habitat quality under land use changes in the process of urbanization is of great significance for building a comprehensive ecological planning system and responding to major challenges in global sustainable development. Based on the land use data and socio-economic data interpreted by remote sensing images of Suzhou in 2010 and 2018, this paper selects driving factors such as elevation, slope, distance to highway, and population density, and uses the CLUE-S model to simulate land use changes in 2030 under multiple scenarios, and the InVEST model is used to assess and predict the spatial and temporal evolution of habitat quality in the past and future to explore the impact of land use change on habitat. The results showed that the optimal fitting scale was 400 m × 400 m, the Kappa coefficient reached 0.854 5, and the model was able to simulate the future land use cover pattern of the study area well. In terms of temporal distribution, the habitat quality under the ecological protection scenario in Suzhou in 2030 was the best, while the habitat quality under the natural growth scenario in 2030 was lower than that in 2010 and 2018. In terms of spatial distribution, the habitat quality in the central city of Suzhou, areas with higher concentration of industries and high intensity of population activities are poor, while the habitat quality in the areas with developed water systems such as around Taihu Lake is better. Therefore, the future research area should pay more attention to ecological protection and achieve high-quality development while developing the economy.

     

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