基于二维和三维生态足迹的长三角城市群自然资本可持续性分析

Analysis of natural capital sustainability of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration based on two-dimensional and three-dimensional ecological footprint models

  • 摘要: 城镇化和工业化进程的不断推进给城市群自然资本及其可持续利用带来较大的威胁。为明确城市群建设过程中自然资本可持续性变化特征,以长三角城市群为研究对象,采用二维和三维生态足迹评价模型,同时添加水资源账户对原模型进行改进以反映长三角地区水资源潜力与压力,研究分析了2005—2019年长三角城市群生态足迹、生态压力指数和生态协调指数变化、自然资本存量消耗和自然资本流量占用情况及其影响因素与作用机制。结果表明:1)研究期间,长三角城市群人均生态足迹和生态承载力分别为4.46和1.59 hm2/人,平均人均生态赤字为2.87 hm2/人,但万元GDP生态足迹不断下降,资源利用率不断上升;2)2005—2019年,长三角城市群生态压力指数由2.48升至3.25,生态协调指数由1.30变为1.25;3)基于改进三维生态足迹模型发现,长三角城市群资本存量利用程度越来越大,且对自然资本流量的更新起到较大抑制作用,2019年研究区自然资本存量的消耗量是资本流量占有量的2.26倍;4)影响因子分析表明,工业产值、能源消耗总量、建筑用地面积和城镇化率对生态足迹起到了正向促进作用,对自然资本的可持续性产生了较大压力。

     

    Abstract: The continuous advancement of urbanization and industrialization has greatly threatened the natural capital and its sustainable utilization in urban agglomeration. In order to clarify the characteristics of natural capital sustainability changes during the construction process of urban agglomerations, taking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations as an example, two-dimensional and three-dimensional ecological footprint models were applied to analyze the change of ecological footprint, ecological pressure index (EPI) and ecological economic coordination index (EECI), the natural capital stock consumption and natural capital flow occupancy, as well as the influencing factors and its related mechanisms, by adding the water resources account to the adapted ecological footprint model to reflect the water resource potential and demand in this area. The results showed that during the study period, the per capita ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration were 4.46 hm2/person and 1.59 hm2/person, respectively; and the average per capita ecological deficit was 2.87 hm2/person; however, the ecological footprint per unit GDP continued to decline, indicating that the utilization rate of resources continued to rise. From 2005 to 2019, the EPI value of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration increased from 2.48 to 3.25, and the EECI value fell from 1.30 to 1.25. Based on the revised three-dimensional ecological footprint model, it was found that the use of natural capital stock in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was increasing, and it had a significant inhibitory effect on the renewal of natural capital flows, and the consumption of natural capital stock was 2.26 times of capital flow in 2019, with the resource consumption occupied. The impact factors analysis showed that the industrial output value, total energy consumption, construction land area and urbanization rate played positive roles in promoting the ecological footprint and exerted greater pressure on the sustainability of natural capital. The relationships among the ecological pressure level, ecological environmental and economic development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration were quantitatively analyzed to provide a scientific basis and decision support for improving the ecological security and sustainable development of urban agglomerations.

     

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