漓江流域陆地生态系统碳储量时空特征与预测

魏玺; 邵亚; 蔡湘文; 林珍铭; 肖连刚; 刘泽昊

doi:10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20220378

漓江流域陆地生态系统碳储量时空特征与预测

doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20220378

1.
桂林理工大学地球科学学院
2.
桂林理工大学旅游与风景园林学院
3.
华北水利水电大学测绘与地理信息学院

基金项目: 桂林市科学技术研究开发项目(20190217-2)；桂林理工大学博士科研启动基金项目；广西隐伏金属矿产勘查重点实验室资助项目

详细信息

作者简介:
魏玺(1998—)，男，硕士研究生，主要从事土地资源管理研究，2092388157@qq.com

通讯作者:
蔡湘文（1973—），男，副教授，博士，主要从事土地资源管理研究，598196224@qq.com

中图分类号: X171.1
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-04-22

Spatio-temporal characteristics and prediction of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems in Lijiang River basin

1.
School of Earth Sciences, Guilin University of Technology
2.
College of Tourism and Landscape Architecture, Guilin University of Technology
3.
School of Surveying, Mapping and Geographic Information, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power

摘要

摘要:
评估生态系统碳储量，对区域生态管理具有重要意义。利用InVEST模型和PLUS模型，基于解译的土地利用数据和未来土地利用预测数据，研究2000－2020年漓江流域土地利用变化和碳储量时空特征，并预测未来不同发展情景下碳储量的变化。结果表明：2000－2020年漓江流域土地利用变化表现为耕地、林地和草地面积减少，水域、建设用地和未利用地面积增加；受土地利用变化的影响，2000－2020年漓江流域碳储量减少了0.945×10⁶ t，其中2015－2020年减幅最大；碳储量高的区域主要分布在流域西北、西南及东部高海拔地区，碳储量低的区域主要分布在流域中部平原地区且2000－2020年明显扩大，流域内的临桂区、兴安县和灵川县碳储量减少较为显著。预测2030年漓江流域在自然发展情景下碳储量会进一步下降，耕地保护情景下碳储量相较自然发展情景增加0.345×10⁶ t，生态保护情景下碳储量比自然发展情景、耕地保护情景分别增加1.540×10⁶、1.195×10⁶ t。耕地保护情景能够保护耕地数量，但建设用地扩张受到较大限制；生态保护情景能够增强固碳能力，但不能有效控制耕地面积的缩减。未来漓江流域国土空间规划需综合统筹生态保护和耕地保护措施，提升区域碳汇能力，实现绿色可持续发展。
- 土地利用变化 /
- 碳储量 /
- PLUS模型 /
- InVEST模型 /
- 漓江流域
Abstract:
Evaluating ecosystem carbon storage is of great significance to regional ecological management. Using InVEST model and PLUS model, based on the interpreted land use data and future land use forecast data, the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use change and carbon storage in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020 were studied, and the variation of carbon storage in different future scenarios was predicted. The results showed that land use change in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020 was manifested in the reduction of cultivated land, forest land and grassland, and the increase in the area of water, construction land and unused land. Under the influence of land use change, the carbon storage in Lijiang River basin decreased by 0.945×10⁶ t from 2000 to 2020, among which the decrease was the largest from 2015 to 2020. The high carbon storage areas were mainly distributed in the high altitude area of the northwest, southwest and east of the basin, while the low carbon storage areas were mainly distributed in the central plain of the basin and obviously expanded from 2000 to 2020, and the carbon reserves of Lingui, Xing'an and Lingchuan counties in the basin decreased significantly. According to prediction, the carbon storage of Lijiang River basin would further decrease under the natural development scenario in 2030, the carbon storage under the cultivated land protection scenario would increase by 0.345 × 10⁶ t compared with the natural development scenario, and the carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario would increase by 1.540 × 10⁶ and 1.195×10⁶ t compared with the natural development scenario and cultivated land protection scenario, respectively. The cultivated land protection scenario could protect the amount of cultivated land, but the expansion of construction land was limited to a great extent; the ecological protection scenario could enhance carbon sequestration capacity, but could not effectively control the reduction of cultivated land area. In the future national land spatial planning of Lijiang River basin, ecological protection and cultivated land protection measures needed to be comprehensively coordinated to enhance the regional carbon sequestration capacity and achieve green and sustainable development.
- land use change /
- carbon storage /
- PLUS model /
- InVEST model /
- Lijiang River basin

HTML全文

图 1 漓江流域行政区划

Figure 1. Administrative divisions of Lijiang River basin

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图 2 2000—2020年漓江流域土地利用分布

Figure 2. Distribution of land use in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020

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图 3 2000—2020年漓江流域碳储量变化

Figure 3. Changes in carbon storage in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020

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图 4 2000—2020年漓江流域碳储量空间分布及变化

Figure 4. Spatial distribution and changes of carbon storage in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020

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图 5 不同情景下2030年漓江流域土地利用分布

Figure 5. Distribution of land use in Lijiang River basin in 2030 under different scenarios

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图 6 不同情景下2020—2030年漓江流域碳储量空间变化

Figure 6. Spatial changes of carbon storage in Lijiang River Basin from 2020 to 2030 under different scenarios

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表 1 漓江流域碳密度

Table 1. Carbon density in Lijiang River basin t/hm²　

土地利用类型	$ {C}_{i-\mathrm{a}} $	$ {C}_{i-\mathrm{b}} $	$ {C}_{i-\mathrm{s}} $	$ {C}_{i} $
耕地^[18-21]	13.57	2.65	47.400	63.62
林地^[19-21]	58.30	14.58	96.00	168.88
草地^[21]	3.01	13.53	60.00	76.54
水域^[21]	2.80	2.40	0.00	5.20
建设用地^[19-21]	11.45	0.93	31.40	43.78
未利用地^[19-20]	3.40	0.00	31.40	34.80

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表 2 不同时段各类土地利用类型面积变化

Table 2. Changes in the area of various types of land in different time periods km²　

年份区间	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
2000—2005	−5.756	−2.727	−2.467	0.468	10.603	0.014
2005—2010	−9.789	12.534	−19.619	8.265	8.235	0.393
2010—2015	−17.059	−19.671	0.484	3.209	31.078	1.821
2015—2020	−60.469	−33.278	−14.940	14.272	95.676	−1.086
2000—2020	−93.074	−43.142	−36.542	26.213	145.592	1.141

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表 3 2000—2020年漓江流域土地转移矩阵结果

Table 3. Results of land transfer matrix in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020 km²　

土地利用类型	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
耕地	3 421.710	80.006	18.209	18.105	101.625	0.161
林地	82.576	11 314.903	54.046	15.785	37.124	1.023
草地	19.608	58.763	1 646.417	5.242	28.085	0.016
水域	6.540	4.721	1.497	168.255	1.562	0.004
建设用地	16.300	3.645	1.460	1.402	340.531	0.005
未利用地	0.001	0.070	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.055

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表 4 漓江流域不同土地利用类型碳储量

Table 4. Carbon storage of different land use types in Lijiang River basin 10⁶ t　

年份	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
2000	23.157	194.366	13.465	0.095	1.591	0.007
2020	22.565	193.637	13.185	0.109	2.228	0.011

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表 5 2000—2020年漓江流域各土地利用类型转化下的碳储量变化

Table 5. Changes in carbon storage under the transformation of various land use types in Lijiang River basin from 2000 to 2020

土地利用类型转化	面积/km²	碳储量变化/万t
耕地－林地	80.006	84.214
耕地－草地	18.209	2.353
耕地－水域	18.105	−10.577
耕地－建设用地	101.625	−20.162
耕地－未利用地	0.161	−0.046
林地－耕地	82.576	−86.920
林地－草地	54.046	−49.906
林地－水域	15.785	−25.837
林地－建设用地	37.124	−46.442
林地－未利用地	1.023	−1.372
草地－耕地	19.608	−2.533
草地－林地	58.763	54.262
草地－水域	5.242	−3.740
草地－建设用地	28.085	−9.201
草地－未利用地	0.016	−0.006
水域－耕地	6.540	3.820
水域－林地	4.721	7.728
水域－草地	1.497	1.068
水域－建设用地	1.562	0.603
水域－未利用地	0.004	0.001
建设用地－耕地	16.300	3.234
建设用地－林地	3.645	4.559
建设用地－草地	1.460	0.478
建设用地－水域	1.402	−0.541
建设用地－未利用地	0.005	0.000
未利用地－耕地	0.001	0.000
未利用地－林地	0.070	0.094
未利用地－草地	0.000	0.000

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表 6 不同情景下2030年漓江流域不同土地利用类型碳储量

Table 6. Carbon storage of different land use in Lijiang River basin under different scenarios in 2030 10⁶ t　

土地利用类型	不同情景下碳储量
土地利用类型	自然发展情景	耕地保护情景	生态保护情景
耕地	22.203	23.162	22.203
林地	192.806	192.684	194.683
草地	13.068	13.068	13.068
水域	0.116	0.098	0.096
建设用地	2.699	2.225	2.384
未利用地	0.011	0.011	0.009
合计	230.903	231.248	232.443

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