Abstract: Exploring the influencing factors and resource utilization potential of scrap steel in Shanxi Province is of positive significance for accelerating the development of circular economy and promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of the steel industry. Based on PEST (political, economic, social, technical) model, the principal component analysis method was used to identify the influencing factors of scrap steel recycling in Shanxi Province. Relying on the life cycle method, combined with GM (1,1) model and the system dynamics simulation model, the potential of scrap steel resource utilization in Shanxi Province from 2021 to 2035 was comprehensively evaluated. The results showed that the influencing factors of scrap steel recycling in Shanxi Province could be sumarized into three aspects, i.e. the comprehensive strength of enterprises, the industry policy environment and the industry market environment. Moreover, Shanxi Province had great potential for scrap steel recycling; the utilization of scrap steel resources would increase rapidly from 2021 to 2030 and stabilize after 2030. In order to improve the level of scrap steel resource utilization in Shanxi Province and promote the high-quality development of the industry, the following policy suggestions were proposed: cultivating standardized and large-scale scrap steel recycling enterprises; improving the level of intelligent information in the industry and enhancing the scientific and technological innovation ability of enterprises; strengthening market supervision and guiding the benign development of the market.