北京市机动车排放趋势与协同控制情景分析

Scenario analysis of motor vehicle emission trends and synergistic control in Beijing

  • 摘要: 为了分析北京市长时间尺度的机动车尾气排放趋势,研究机动车排放大气污染物和温室气体的协同控制效应。应用COPERT 5模型构建2005—2020年北京市机动车污染物CO、NOx、VOCs、PM2.5和CO2、CH4、N2O的排放清单,以2020年为基准年,设置5种减排情景评估2025年各情景下的机动车污染物减排效果,并利用协同减排弹性系数法和坐标系法分别分析了大气污染物与温室气体的协同效应。结果表明:CO2排放增长趋势显著,相比2005年,2020年其排放增长率达到85.25%,而其他污染物相比2005年均呈下降趋势。不同控制情景下,北京市机动车大气污染物和温室气体排放量相比于基准情景(BAU)均具有减排效果,综合控制情景(RIS)减排效果最好。从协同减排弹性系数法和坐标系法分析结果看,不同控制情景下大气污染物和温室气体均具有协同效应,且RIS下协同效应最优。未来北京市应积极采取综合控制对策,兼顾统筹各种减排措施,为尽快实现降碳减污协同治理和绿色低碳经济社会转型奠定基础。

     

    Abstract: In order to analyze the trends of motor vehicle emissions on the time scale of Beijing, the synergistic control effects of motor vehicle emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases were studied. COPERT 5 model was applied to construct the emission inventories of motor vehicle pollutants CO, NOx, VOCs, PM2.5 and greenhouse gases CO2, CH4 and N2O in Beijing from 2005 to 2020, and five emission reduction scenarios were set up to evaluate the emission reduction effects of motor vehicle pollutants under each scenario in 2025 with 2020 as the base year, and the synergistic emission reduction elasticity coefficient method and coordinate system method were applied to analyze the synergistic effects of air pollutants and greenhouse gases, respectively. The results showed that CO2 emissions increased significantly, with a growth rate of 85.25% in 2020 compared to 2005, while all the pollutants decreased compared to 2005. Under different control scenarios, the emissions of motor vehicle air pollutants and greenhouse gases in Beijing were reduced compared with the business-as-usual scenario (BAU), and the integrated control scenario (RIS) had the best emission reduction effect. From the results of the synergistic emission reduction elasticity coefficient method and coordinate system method, the synergistic effects of air pollutants and greenhouse gases under different control scenarios were observed, and the synergistic effects were optimal in the RIS scenario. In the future, Beijing should actively adopt comprehensive control measures and coordinate various emission reduction measures, laying the foundation for collaborative governance of pollution reduction and carbon reduction and green low-carbon economic and social transformation as soon as possible.

     

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