京津冀城市群减污降碳时空特征及影响因素异质性分析

Spatial and temporal characteristics and the heterogeneity of influencing factors of the synergism of pollution and carbon emissions reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

  • 摘要: 基于2003—2020年京津冀城市群数据,利用耦合协调度、空间杜宾和时空地理加权回归模型,探究城市群减污降碳协同效应的时空特征及其影响因素的异质性。结果表明:“十五”“十一五”期间京津冀城市群碳排放量快速增长,进入“十二五”后增速放缓;大气污染物排放在“十二五”达到峰值,“十三五”减排效果显著;研究期内,减污降碳耦合协调水平展现出三阶段波动式上升的特点,分别为缓慢上升、徘徊探索和稳步增长阶段;能源消费强度和能源消费总量是影响城市减污降碳耦合协调水平的直接核心因素,城镇化率、实际人均GDP、产业结构、实际利用外资金额和科学技术支出占比等通过影响能源消费而作用于减污降碳耦合协调水平,且各因素均展现出时空异质性特征。最后,从推动区域减污降碳协同控制、强化重点城市和重点行业差异化协同减排策略、推动能源结构调整、注重绿色技术创新和绿色金融支持等方面提出优化对策。

     

    Abstract: Based on the data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2003 to 2020, the coupling coordination degree, spatial Durbin and spatial-temporal geographical weighted regression models were used to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the urban agglomeration and the heterogeneity of its influencing factors. The study showed that carbon emissions grew rapidly from the 10th to the 11th Five-year Plan periods, and then slowed down after the 12th Five-year Plan period. The emission of atmospheric pollutants reached its peak during the 12th Five-year Plan period, and the emission reduction effect during the 13th Five-year Plan period was significant. During the study period, the level of pollution and carbon reduction coupling and coordination showed three phases of fluctuating increase, namely, slow increase, hovering exploration and steady increase; the energy consumption intensity and total energy consumption were the core factors directly affecting the level of pollution and carbon reduction coupling and coordination in the cities. The urbanization rate, real GDP per capita, industrial structure, the amount of foreign investment utilized and the proportion of science and technology expenditure were the core factors affecting the level of pollution and carbon reduction coupling and coordination by affecting energy consumption, and all factors showed spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Finally, optimized countermeasures were proposed in terms of promoting collaborative control of regional pollution reduction and carbon reduction, strengthening differentiated collaborative emission reduction strategies for key cities and key industries, promoting energy restructuring, and focusing on green technology innovation and green financial support.

     

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