人地共生视角下生态系统服务与民生福祉耦合关系及模拟预测研究以桂西南喀斯特—北部湾为例

Coupling relation between ecosystem services and people's well-being from the perspective of human-land symbiosis and simulation prediction: a case study of southwestern Guangxi Karst-Beibu Gulf

  • 摘要: 生态系统服务与民生福祉耦合协调发展是区域生态系统管理与可持续发展的关键。以桂西南喀斯特—北部湾为例,基于修正模型、综合评价模型及耦合协调度模型,分析生态系统服务价值(ESV)与民生福祉水平及二者的耦合关系。结果表明: 2005—2020年桂西南喀斯特—北部湾ESV降低,呈现西北高、东南低的空间特征;民生福祉达到高水平;ESV与民生福祉的耦合协调性增强,空间分布与ESV 西北高、东南低的特征一致;2025—2035年ESV呈降低趋势,民生福祉、二者耦合协调性均增强,但需采取措施应对ESV降低的风险。提出了落实建设用地与生态用地的占补调整,加强沿海防护林建设和引导资本将生态价值充分转化为经济、文化价值等建议,以实现生态可持续与人民收入的稳定增长。

     

    Abstract: The coupling and coordinated development of ecosystem services and people's well-being is crucial for the management and sustainable development of regional ecosystems. Taking the Karst-Beibu Gulf in southwestern Guangxi as an example, based on the modified model, comprehensive evaluation model and coupling coordination model, the coupling relationship between ecosystem services value (ESV) and the level of people's well-being was analyzed. The results showed that from 2005 to 2020, the ESV of the Karst-Beibu Gulf in southwestern Guangxi decreased, showing a spatial characteristic of "higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast", achieving a high level of people's well-being. The coupling and coordination between ecosystem services value and people's well-being had been enhanced, and the spatial distribution was consistent with the characteristic of ESV "high in the northwest and low in the southeast". From 2025 to 2035, the ESV shows a decreasing trend, while people's well-being and the coupling of the two will increase. However, measures should be taken to address the risk of ecosystem service value reduction. The research results have enriched the analytical perspective of people's well-being, proposing suggestions for implementing the adjustment of the occupation and compensation of construction land and ecological land, strengthening the construction of coastal protective forests, and guiding capital to fully convert the ecological value into economic and cultural value, to achieve ecological sustainability and stable growth of people's income.

     

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