基于不同减排情景的印染行业许可排放量核定方法探究以江苏南通市为例

Research on the verifying method of allowable discharge in printing and dyeing industry based on different discharge reduction scenarios: a case study in Nantong City of Jiangsu Province

  • 摘要: 针对我国排污许可制度中许可排放量限值合理确定的需求,以南通市88家间排印染企业为研究对象,采用传统的排放绩效核算方法和基准线设定方法,对印染企业进行基于实际排放水平的排放绩效确定;同时,从假设定量的角度确定印染企业强、中、弱3种减排情景的许可限值,并预测了3种减排情景下化学需氧量(CODCr)、氨氮(NH3-N)、总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)的减排量。结果表明:1)88家印染企业CODCr、NH3-N、TN、TP实际排放量占许可排放量比例平均值最大不超过34.46%,印染企业主要水污染物许可排放量有较大核减潜力;2)88家印染企业4种污染物由分位值法得到的95%分位值和99%分位值与由正态分布分析法得到的P95和P99对应绩效相当;3)对比分析分位值法、正态分布分析法所得基准线及88家印染企业实际排放平均绩效、标准绩效发现,对于4种污染物,至少有71.59%企业的实际排放绩效在平均绩效之下,17.05%企业的实际排放绩效在平均绩效与95%分位基准线之间,2.33%企业的实际排放绩效在95%分位基准线与标准绩效之间;4)基于弱、中、强3种减排情景的4种污染物预计减排比例分别为2.08%~5.99%、11.73%~20.05%和23.24%~36.04%。

     

    Abstract: In view of the need for reasonable determination of allowable emission limits in China's emission permit system, 88 printing and dyeing enterprises in Nantong City were taken as the research object, and the traditional discharge performance accounting methods and baseline setting methods were adopted to determine the discharge performance of printing and dyeing enterprises based on the actual emission level. Meanwhile, the allowable limits of printing and dyeing enterprises were determined under three scenarios of strong, medium and weak discharge reduction from a hypothetical quantitative perspective. The discharge reductions of chemical oxygen demand (CODCr), ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) under the three scenarios were projected. The results showed as follows: 1) The maximum average value of the actual discharges of CODCr, NH3-N,TN and TP in 88 printing and dyeing enterprises did not exceed 34.46% of the allowable discharges, the permissible discharge of major water pollutants in Nantong printing and dyeing enterprises had great potential for verification and reduction. 2) 95% and 99% quantile values of the 4 pollutants from 88 printing and dyeing enterprises obtained by the quantile value method were equivalent to the corresponding performance values of P95 and P99 obtained by the normal distribution analysis method. 3) Comparing the numerical reference lines obtained by the quantile value method and the normal distribution analysis method with the actual average and standard performances of 88 printing and dyeing enterprises, it was found that as to the four pollutants, at least 71.59% of the enterprises were below the average performances, 17.05% of the enterprises were between the average performances and the 95% quintile, and 2.33% of the enterprises were between the 95% quintile and the standard performances. 4) Based on the three discharge reduction scenarios of weak, medium, and strong, the projected discharge reductions for four pollutants were 2.08%-5.99%, 11.73%-20.05% and 23.24%-36.04%, respectively.

     

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