2014—2020年全国沿海溢油风险情势变化

Changes of the coastal oil spill risk regime in China from 2014 to 2020

  • 摘要: 为研究大规模海上油品运输溢油风险的时空分布特征,采用地理空间分析、大数据分析、数理统计等方法,建立海上溢油风险空间分析模型,应用全国沿海船舶AIS数据、溢油历史事故、生态环境敏感目标等数据分析2014—2020年溢油风险情势的变化情况。结果表明:与2014年相比,2020年溢油事故风险指数均值、最大值分别增加27.8%和26.8%,溢油事故风险指数变化为−0.46~0.40,其中风险增加的海域主要分布在南北大通道、成山头、长江口、台湾海峡、珠江口海域,减少区域主要分布在近岸海域。全国沿海溢油事故高风险集中区主要分布在渤海—北黄海、长江口、台湾海峡、珠江口等海域;相较于2014年,2020年高风险集中区内有局部调整变化,但是高风险集中区的分布格局未发生变化。研究成果可为溢油风险管控和应急装备配备提供支撑。

     

    Abstract: In order to study the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of oil spill risk of large-scale oil transportation in marine, the spatial analysis model of marine oil spill risk was established by applying the methods of geospatial analysis, big data analysis and mathematical statistics. The changes of oil spill risk regime from 2014 to 2020 were analyzed based on the national coastal ship AIS data, historical oil spill accident data, and ecological environment sensitive area data. The results showed that compared with 2014, the average value and the maximum value of oil spill accident risk index in 2020 increased by about 27.8% and 26.8%, respectively. The change of oil spill accident risk index was about -0.46-0.40. The oil spill accident risk increasing areas were mainly in the north-south channel, Chengshantou, the mouth of the Yangtze River, Taiwan Strait, and the Pearl River estuary sea area. The oil spill accident risk decreasing areas were mainly distributed in the near-shore sea area. The high-risk concentration areas of coastal oil spill accident risk were mainly located in the Bohai Sea - North Yellow Sea, the mouth of the Yangtze River, Taiwan Strait and the Pearl River estuary sea area. There were localized adjustments within the high-risk concentration areas in 2020 compared with 2014, but the distribution pattern of high-risk concentration areas remained unchanged. The research results could provide support for risk control and emergency equipment.

     

/

返回文章
返回