基于PLUS-InVEST模型的大兴安岭生态系统碳储量时空变化与预测

Spatial-temporal changes and prediction of carbon storage in Greater Khingan Mountains based on PLUS-InVEST model

  • 摘要: 探究不同土地利用情景下陆地生态系统固碳能力对于提高区域碳储量具有重要意义。结合InVEST和PLUS模型,分析1992—2020年大兴安岭土地利用类型和碳储量的时空变化特征,预测自然发展、耕地保护和生态保护情景下,2030年和2060年大兴安岭碳储量时空变化。结果表明:1992—2020年,研究区主要土地利用类型为林地和耕地,占总面积90%以上,土地利用变化主要以林地和建设用地扩张及草地面积缩减为主。近30年碳储量整体呈现先减少后增加的趋势,共增加1.89×107 t,其空间分布呈现中心高两侧低,碳储量增加主要受林地面积增加影响。在耕地护情景下,2030年和2060年碳储量增加减缓,相较于自然发展情景分别减少了2.95×106和1.00×106 t;生态保护情景下,碳储量增加最显著,相较于自然发展情景分别增加了9.40×106和30.22×106 t。耕地保护情景可有效保障耕地数量,但区域碳储量的增长较为缓慢;而生态保护情景下林地等生态用地面积大幅度增加,碳储量显著提高。未来大兴安岭国土空间规划需综合统筹生态优先和耕地保护政策,提升区域碳汇能力,实现绿色高质量发展。

     

    Abstract: Exploring the carbon storage capacity of terrestrial ecosystems under different land use scenarios is of great significance for improving regional carbon storage. Combining the InVEST and PLUS models, we analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of land use types and carbon storage in the Greater Khingan Mountains from 1992 to 2020, and forecasted the spatial and temporal changes in carbon storage under natural development, cropland protection, and ecological protection scenarios for 2030 and 2060. The results indicated that from 1992 to 2020, the dominant land use types in the study area were forest and cropland, accounting for more than 90% of the total area. The predominant land use changes were the expansion of forest and construction lands, accompanied by a decrease in the area of grasslands. Over the past three decades, the overall trend in carbon storage had shown an initial decrease followed by an increase, with a total increase of 1.89×107 t. The spatial distribution of carbon storage was higher in the center and lower on the sides, with increases primarily driven by the expansion of forested areas. Under the cropland conservation scenario, the increase in carbon storage in 2030 and 2060 was expected to slow down, decreasing by 2.95×106 and 1.00×106 t, respectively, compared to the natural development scenario. Under the ecological conservation scenario, the carbon storage increased most significantly, with an increase of 9.40×106 and 30.22×106 t, respectively, compared to the natural development scenario. The cropland protection scenario could effectively ensure the quantity of arable land, yet the increase in regional carbon storage was relatively slow. In contrast, under the ecological conservation scenario, a substantial increase in the area of forests and other ecological lands significantly enhanced carbon storage. Future national land spatial planning for the Greater Khingan Mountains should comprehensively coordinate ecological priorities with cropland protection policies to enhance the region's carbon storage capacity and achieve green, high-quality development.

     

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