黄河流域资源型城市碳生态安全差异测度、来源分解与时空演进

Difference measurement, source decomposition and spatial-temporal evolution of carbon ecological security in resource-based cities of the Yellow River Basin

  • 摘要: 黄河流域作为我国重要的“能源流域”,分析其资源型城市碳生态安全空间差异、差异来源与动态演进,有助于优化全流域碳生态安全布局。在构建黄河流域资源型城市碳生态安全评价指标体系的基础上,选用TOPSIS模型与Dagum基尼系数,评价其2012—2021年碳生态安全水平并分析其差异来源,进一步引入核密度估计法探究时空演变特征。结果表明:黄河流域资源型城市碳生态安全水平逐年提升且呈现“小幅提升—快速上涨”的特征,上游资源型城市碳生态安全水平高于中、下游。不同地区资源型城市碳生态安全的空间非均衡显著,区域间差异是影响碳生态安全总体差异的主要来源,超变密度对其整体差异影响增强。依据核密度估计结果,不同地区资源型城市碳安全水平差异趋于缩小,但中游差异性变小不明显。结合“双碳”目标,黄河流域不同地区资源型城市应制定不同区域碳生态安全目标和举措,实现全域碳生态安全平衡。

     

    Abstract: The Yellow River Basin is regarded as an important "energy basin" in China. The spatial difference, sources of difference and dynamic evolution of carbon ecological security in resource-based cities were analyzed to optimize the overall layout of the basin's carbon ecological security. An evaluation index system for carbon ecological security of resource-based cities in the Yellow River Basin was constructed, and the TOPSIS model and Dagum Gini coefficient were selected to evaluate the level of carbon ecological security from 2012 to 2021 and analyze the sources of difference for carbon ecological security. The characteristics of spatial-temporal evolution were explored by the kernel density estimation method. The results showed that the carbon ecological security level had been increasing in the resource-based cities of the Yellow River Basin year by year, which had the characteristic of "slight increase - rapid increase", and the carbon ecological security level in the resource-based cities of the upstream region was higher than that in the middle and downstream regions. The spatial imbalance of carbon ecological security in the resource-based cities of different regions was very significant; the regional difference was the main source of the overall difference in carbon ecological security, and the impact of super variable density on the overall difference was increasing. According to the estimation results of the kernel density, the difference in carbon security levels was gradually narrowing among the resource-based cities in different regions of the Yellow River Basin, but the difference in the middle reaches was not obvious. Based on the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals", the resource-based cities in different regions of the Yellow River Basin should formulate different regional carbon ecological security goals and measures to achieve a balance of carbon ecological security across the entire region.

     

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