湖北省农作物碳汇的阶段性特征、空间差异与动态演进基于1997—2022年湖北省农作物数据

Stage characteristics, spatial differences and dynamic evolution of crop carbon sink in Hubei Province based on the crop data from 1997 to 2022

  • 摘要: 湖北省是我国农业大省,科学测算湖北省农作物碳汇,摸清本底,对碳汇交易和农业低碳发展具有重要意义。对湖北省1997—2022年的农作物碳汇量进行测算,运用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计和Markov链,探讨湖北省农作物碳汇量的地区差异和动态演进特征。结果表明:1997—2022年,湖北省农作物碳汇量呈现“W”形波动上升的态势,平均值为12 085.30万t,其中粮食作物为湖北省农作物碳汇的主要贡献来源。“双碳”背景下对湖北省的三大地区及各市(州、林区)展开分析,发现1997—2022年鄂东地区农作物碳汇量位于湖北省三大地区的第一位。Dagum基尼系数分析显示湖北省农作物碳汇存在一定的地区差异,其差异主要来自于超变密度,平均贡献率为53.58%,湖北省农作物碳汇总量具有较强的稳定性,具有一定的俱乐部趋同特征。最后提出相关对策建议,如开发农作物碳汇核算方法学和标准,制定差异化的农业碳汇增汇政策,探索农业碳汇交易机制及价值实现。

     

    Abstract: Hubei Province is a major agricultural province in China. The scientific measurement of the carbon sink of crops in Hubei Province, which clarifies the baseline, is of significant importance for carbon sink trading and the development of low-carbon agriculture. The study measured the carbon sink of crops in Hubei Province from 1997 to 2022, employing the Dagum Gini coefficient, Kernel density estimation, and Markov chains, to explore the regional differences and dynamic evolution characteristics of the crop carbon sink in Hubei Province. The results indicated that from 1997 to 2022, the crop carbon sink in Hubei Province exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, presenting a "W" shaped distribution with an average value of 120.853 million tons, with grain crops being the primary contributor to the crop carbon sink. Under the "dual carbon" context, an analysis of three major regions and cities (prefectures) in Hubei Province revealed that from 1997 to 2022, the eastern region of Hubei Province ranked first among the three major regions in terms of crop carbon sink. The Dagum Gini coefficient analysis showed certain regional differences in the crop carbon sink in Hubei Province, mainly coming from ultra-variable density, with an average contribution rate of 53.58%. The total crop carbon sink in Hubei Province exhibited strong stability and demonstrated certain characteristics of club convergence. Finally, this paper proposed the development of methodologies and standards for crop carbon sink accounting, the formulation of differentiated policies for increasing agricultural carbon sink, and suggestions for exploring countermeasures for carbon sink trading.

     

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