滇中高原湖泊流域生态环境质量时空演变趋势及驱动因素

Spatiotemporal evolution trend and driving factors of eco-environmental quality in lake basins of the central Yunnan Plateau

  • 摘要: 以滇中五大高原湖泊流域为研究区,基于“功能—稳定—胁迫”的生态环境评价体系,构建了表征生态环境质量的生态质量指数(EQI),综合采用Theil-Sen斜率估计、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、随机森林模型等方法,分析了2001—2021年长时间序列滇中高原湖泊流域生态环境变化趋势及驱动因素。结果表明:1)滇中高原湖泊流域生态环境质量2001—2011年呈缓慢波动下降趋势,EQI由0.569降至0.549,2011年以后提升较为明显,至2021年EOI升至最高点0.577,总体呈上升趋势,这与该区自2007年以来大力实施退耕还林还草、植树造林、生态搬迁、修复有关。2)五大湖泊中,阳宗海与抚仙湖流域2001—2021年生态环境质量总体呈明显波动上升趋势,其中阳宗海流域EQI由0.615上升至0.668,抚仙湖流域EQI由0.621上升至0.671;滇池流域2001—2021年保持较为稳定的状态,2001年与2021年EQI均为0.562;星云湖与杞麓湖流域2001—2021年生态环境质量下降显著,2个流域EQI分别由0.553、0.534降至0.549、0.518。五大湖泊流域生态环境质量较好且显著上升的区域主要分布于海拔较高的流域边界附近,而质量较差且显著下降的区域主要分布于海拔较低的湖盆区。3)生态功能指数对流域生态环境影响最大,人口密度为第二主导因素,由于独特的地形条件及GDP分布,对流域生态环境影响最小的是坡度与国内生产总值;耕地转换为林草地使生态环境质量显著上升,而建设用地快速侵占耕地与林草地,造成生态环境质量显著下降。研究结果可为滇中湖泊流域开发管理和生态保护治理供参考依据。

     

    Abstract: Taking the five lake basins of the central Yunnan Plateau as the study areas, based on the eco-environmental evaluation system of “function-stability-stress", the ecological quality index (EQI) was constructed to characterize the eco-environment. Comprehensively adopting the Theil-Sen slope estimator, Mann-Kendall test, random forest model, the eco-environmental changes and driving factors in the lake basin of the central Yunnan Plateau over a long period from 2001 to 2021 were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) The eco-environmental quality of the lake basins in the central Yunnan Plateau showed a slow fluctuating downward trend from 2001 to 2011, with EQI decreasing from 0.569 to 0.549. After 2011, the improvement was more significant, and by 2021, EOI had reached its highest point of 0.577, showing an overall upward trend. This was related to the region's vigorous implementation of returning farmland to forests and grasslands, afforestation, ecological relocation, and restoration since 2007. (2) Among the five major lakes, the eco-environmental quality of Yangzonghai and Fuxian Lake basins showed a significant upward trend from 2001 to 2021. Among them, the EQI of Yangzonghai basin increased from 0.615 to 0.668, and the EQI of Fuxian Lake basin increased from 0.621 to 0.671. Dianchi Lake Basin maintained a relatively stable state from 2001 to 2021, with an EQI of 0.562 in both 2001 and 2021. The eco-environmental quality of Xingyun Lake and Qilu Lake basins significantly declined from 2001 to 2021. The EQI of Xingyun Lake basin had decreased from 0.553 to 0.549, and the EQI of Qilu Lake basin had decreased from 0.534 to 0.518. The areas with good and significantly improved eco-environmental quality in the five major lake basins were mainly distributed near the boundaries of high-altitude basins, while the areas with poor and significantly decreased quality were mainly distributed in the lower altitude lake basin areas. (3) The factor importance results showed that the ecological function index was the most important for basin ecology, followed by population density, which was as the second dominant factor, and due to the unique topographical conditions and GDP distribution, the smallest impact was the slope and the gross domestic product on the basin's eco-environment. Converting farmland to forests and grasslands significantly improved the eco-environment, while construction land rapidly encroached on forests and grassland, causing a significant decline in the eco-environment. The research results can serve as a reference basis for the development, management, and ecological protection and governance of lake basins in the central Yunnan Plateau.

     

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