“一带一路”倡议下中国沿线区域物流业碳排放时空演变及驱动因素分析

Spatial and temporal evolution and driving factors of carbon emissions in regional logistics industry in China under the Belt and Road Initiative

  • 摘要: 物流业是碳排放的重要领域,厘清“一带一路”沿线区域物流业碳排放时空演变及驱动因素,对推动物流业可持续发展至关重要。以“一带一路”沿线我国17个省域的物流业为研究对象,运用IPCC碳排放系数法计算2006—2022年“一带一路”沿线区域物流业碳排放量;采用倾向值法、空间自相关法和广义迪氏指数分解法分析“一带一路”沿线区域物流业的时空演变和驱动因素。结果表明:1)在研究范围内,物流业碳排放量整体呈上升趋势。2)物流业碳排放量具有显著的空间正相关,并且“高-高”集聚区主要分布在东南地区,“低-低”集聚区主要分布在西北地区。3)驱动因素中,物流业固定资产投资与物流业增加值是促进碳排放的主要因素;而物流业的投资碳强度和产出碳强度是抑制碳排放的关键因素。政府应鼓励企业加大对低碳化程度的投资以及通过技术创新和升级优化产业及能源结构等来减少物流业碳排放。

     

    Abstract: The logistics industry is an important field of CO2 emissions. Clarifying the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of carbon emissions from the logistics industry in provinces along the Belt and Road is crucial for promoting the sustainable development of the logistics industry. The logistics industry in 17 provinces along the Belt and Road was selected as the research object. Firstly, IPCC carbon emission coefficient method was used to calculate carbon emissions of the logistics industry in provinces along the Belt and Road during 2006-2022. Then, SLOPE, spatial autocorrelation and GDIM methods were used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of carbon emissions of the logistics industry in provinces along the Belt and Road. The results showed that: (1) The carbon emissions of the logistics industry were on the rise as a whole. (2) The carbon emissions of the logistics industry had a significant spatial positive correlation, and the "high-high" agglomeration area was mainly distributed in the southeast area, while the "low-low" agglomeration area was mainly distributed in the northwest area. (3) Among the driving factors, the investment and added value of fixed assets in the logistics industry were the main factors promoting carbon emission. Investment carbon intensity and output carbon intensity of the logistics industry were the key factors to curb carbon emissions. Based on this, the government should actively encourage enterprises to increase investment in the degree of low-carbon, and optimize the industrial and energy structure through technological innovation and upgrading to reduce carbon emissions of the logistics industry.

     

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