黄河流域城市群农业水-碳足迹评估与城市间流动分析

Agricultural water-carbon footprint assessment and inter-city flow analysis in urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin

  • 摘要: 农业生产不仅是黄河流域的用水大户,而且其产生的碳排放亦不容忽视。基于城市群尺度开展农业水-碳足迹综合评估和流动分析,有助于促进黄河流域各城市群在农业节水与降碳方面的协同管理,推动流域实现高质量发展。基于构建的城市尺度多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型,从生产和消费双重视角综合评估了流域5个国家级城市群共71个城市的农业水、碳足迹,并分析了城市群间及其内部虚拟水和隐含碳的流动特征。结果表明:1)生产端农业水足迹和碳足迹分别为336.2亿m3和117.7 Mt,其中中原和山东半岛城市群尤为突出,合计分别占55.5%和66.7%;消费端农业水足迹和碳足迹相对较低,分别为124.7亿m3和53.0 Mt,表明生产端的资源环境压力更为突出。2)黄河流域农业水-碳足迹空间分布格局具有相似性,北部和东部部分城市水-碳足迹较高,而南部和西部城市相对较低;从强度指标来看,东部和南部城市水-碳足迹强度较低,而北部和西部城市则相对较高。3)农业虚拟水和隐含碳主要在城市群内部流动,分别占跨城市转移总量的78.7%和80.5%,且流动集中于中原和山东半岛城市群内部,输出城市往往是以农业生产和加工为主,输入城市则多为区域消费和经济活动的中心。建议结合城市群特征制定和完善农业节水和降碳措施,强化城市群间的协同合作与资源共享,共同推进黄河流域农业的绿色转型与可持续发展。

     

    Abstract: Agricultural production is not only a major water user in the Yellow River Basin but also a major contributor to carbon emission. The comprehensive assessment and flow analysis of agricultural water-carbon footprints at the urban agglomeration level in the Yellow River Basin can facilitate synergistic management of water conservation and carbon reduction among these agglomerations, ultimately driving the basin towards high-quality development. Based on the constructed city-scale multiregional input-output (MRIO) model, we comprehensively assessed the water footprint and carbon footprint of agriculture in 71 cities in five national city clusters in the basin from the production and consumption perspectives. The flow of virtual water and embodied carbon between and within city clusters was also analyzed. The results showed that: (1) From a production perspective, the total agricultural water and carbon footprints were 33.62 billion m3 and 117.7 Mt, respectively, of which the city clusters of the Central Plains and the Shandong Peninsula were particularly prominent, accounting for 55.5% and 66.7%, respectively. The consumption perspective revealed a considerably lower impact, with a total of 12.47 billion m3 and 53.0 Mt, respectively. (2) The spatial distribution patterns of agricultural water-carbon footprints were similar, with some cities in the north and east having higher water-carbon footprints, while cities in the south and west had relatively lower ones. Cities in the east and south had lower water-carbon footprint intensities, while cities in the north and west had relatively higher intensities. (3) Agricultural virtual water and embodied carbon mainly flowed within city clusters, accounting for 78.7% and 80.5% of the total inter-city transfers, respectively, and were mainly concentrated in the city clusters of Central Plains and the Shandong Peninsula. Cities that exported virtual resources were typically characterized by agricultural production and processing, while those importing virtual resources were predominantly regional consumption and economic hubs. It was recommended to formulate and improve agricultural water-saving and carbon-reduction measures based on the characteristics of urban agglomerations, strengthen collaborative cooperation and resource sharing among urban agglomerations, and jointly promote the green transformation and sustainable development of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin.

     

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