宁波市农田土壤PAHs污染特征及健康风险评估传统与概率算法对比及生物可给性影响

Characteristics of PAHs contamination and health risk assessment in agricultural soils of Ningbo City: A comparison of traditional and probabilistic methods and the influence of bioaccessibility

  • 摘要: 为科学评估农田土壤多环芳烃(PAHs)暴露对成人的健康风险,调查并分析浙江省宁波市农田表层土壤中16种优先控制PAHs污染特征,通过修正模型参数、引入PAHs生物可给性和应用Monte Carlo模拟技术优化健康风险评估过程,探讨传统方法与概率方法对风险评估结果的影响。结果表明,研究区土壤中16种PAHs总浓度均值为(1 309.77±4 995.87)μg/kg,62.22%的调查点位存在PAHs污染,其中高环(4~6环)PAHs占主导地位。传统健康风险评估显示,总非致癌风险指数(THI)和总致癌风险指数(THQ)分别为1.40×10−4和5.51×10−6,而概率风险评估结果表明,THI指数较传统方法显著降低2个数量级(THI95%=8.71×10−6),总致癌风险也降至几乎可忽略水平(THQ95%=2.06×10−7),传统评估方法可能高估了实际风险。考虑PAHs生物可给性,经口摄入途径健康风险显著降低,THI和THQ的95%分位值分别降至4.31×10−6和7.86×10−8,降幅达50.52%和61.84%。此外,敏感性分析进一步揭示,单体BaP和Phe的浓度、暴露年限和土壤摄入率是影响健康风险的关键因素。

     

    Abstract: In order to scientifically evaluate the health risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) exposure in farmland soil to adults, the contamination characteristics of 16 priority control PAHs were investigated and analyzed in the surface soil of Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province. The health risk assessment process was optimized by modifying the model parameters, incorporating PAHs bioaccessibility, and applying Monte Carlo simulation technology, and then the influence of traditional methods and probabilistic methods on the health risk assessment was explored. The results showed that the average content of Σ16PAHs in the soil was 1 309.77±4 995.87 μg/kg, and 62.22% of the survey sites were polluted with PAHs, among which the high-ring (4~6 rings) PAHs were dominant. Traditional health risk assessments showed that the total non-carcinogenic hazard index (THI) and total carcinogenic hazard index (THQ) were 1.40×10−4 and 5.51×10−6, respectively, which may be an overestimation of the actual risk. The results of the probabilistic risk assessment showed that the THI was significantly reduced by two orders of magnitude (THI95%=8.71×10−6) compared with the traditional method, and the total carcinogenic risk also decreased to an almost negligible level (THQ95%=2.06×10−7). After considering the bioaccessibility of PAHs, the health risk of the oral ingestion route was significantly reduced, and the 95% quantile values of THI and THQ decreased to 4.31×10−6 and 7.86×10−8, with a decrease of 50.52% and 61.84%, respectively. In addition, the sensitivity analysis further revealed that the content of monomers BaP and Phe, exposure years, and soil intake rates were key factors influencing health risks.

     

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