淮河生态经济带新型城镇化与绿色发展协调演进关系研究

Research on the coordinated evolution of new-type urbanization and green development in the Huaihe River Eco-economic Belt

  • 摘要: 探究淮河生态经济带新型城镇化与绿色发展协调演进关系,对增强淮河流域经济发展动力和建设和谐有序的生态经济带具有重要意义。基于新型城镇化与绿色发展耦合协调机理,以2009—2022年淮河生态经济带25个地级市为样本,运用耦合协调度模型、莫兰指数、Dagum基尼系数等方法,研究新型城镇化与绿色发展耦合协调的演进关系和规律。结果表明:1)研究期内,耦合协调度介于0.3~0.8,2018年之后各地级市的协调度均大于0.5,整体呈平缓上升的向好发展趋势;2)协调度空间分布整体呈现出以东部、北部中心城市(如盐城、徐州等)不断向周围城市和中西部扩张的空间格局;3)研究期内,城镇中度协调-绿色发展水平滞后、中度协调同步2种耦合协调类型占主导地位,分别占比30.9%和15.1%,近5年内,北部和中西部地区以绿色发展水平滞后型为主,东部地区新型城镇化滞后问题较为突出;4)耦合协调度自2013年起呈现显著的空间正相关性,总体差异不断缩小,总体的差异主要来源于东部和中西部之间(基尼系数0.08),其贡献率最高(42.85%)。未来可以从绿色发展投入力度、差异化战略、区域协同合作、政策优化等方面,深入研究淮河生态经济带新型城镇化与绿色发展协调发展问题。

     

    Abstract: Exploring the coordinated evolution relationship between new-type urbanization and green development in the Huaihe River Eco-economic Belt is of great significance for enhancing the driving force of economic development in the Huaihe River Basin and building a harmonious and orderly ecological economic belt. Based on the coupling coordination mechanism of new-type urbanization and green development, this paper takes 25 prefecture-level cities in the Huaihe River Eco-economic Belt from 2009 to 2022 as samples, and uses coupling coordination degree model, Moran index, Dagum Gini coefficient and other methods to study the evolution relationship and law of coupling coordination between new-type urbanization and green development. The results showed that: (1) During the study period, the coupling coordination degree was between 0.3 and 0.8. After 2018, the coordination degree of all prefecture-level cities was greater than 0.5, and the overall situation showed a positive development trend of a gentle rise. (2) The spatial distribution of coordination degree showed that the central cities in the east and north (such as Yancheng and Xuzhou) continued to expand to the surrounding cities and the central and western regions. (3) During the study period, the two coupling coordination types of "moderate coordination in cities and towns - lagging green development level" and "moderate coordination synchronization" dominated, accounting for 30.9% and 15.1%, respectively. In the past five years, the northern and central and western regions were dominated by the lagging green development level type, and the lagging problem of new-type urbanization in the eastern region was more prominent. (4) Since 2013, the coupling coordination degree had shown a significant spatial positive correlation, and the overall difference had been shrinking. The overall difference mainly came from the eastern and central and western regions (Gini coefficient 0.08), with the highest contribution rate (42.85%). In the future, in-depth research on the coordinated development of new-type urbanization and green development in the Huaihe River Eco-economic Belt should be conducted from the aspects of green development investment intensity, differentiated strategies, regional collaborative cooperation, and policy optimization.

     

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