不同气候条件下城市中心城区屋顶光伏发电潜力及环境效益评估

Assessment of rooftop photovoltaic power generation potential and environmental benefits in central urban districts under different climatic conditions

  • 摘要: 光伏发电技术受气候变化因素影响较大,为了合理评估我国屋顶光伏潜力,选取我国不同气候条件下典型屋顶资源丰富的海口、昆明、西宁、济南、呼和浩特5个城市中心城区,结合GIS技术对其屋顶光伏发电潜力及环境效益进行评估。结果表明,研究区域的屋顶光伏可利用面积占总屋顶面积的比例为34%~40%;海口、昆明、西宁、济南、呼和浩特中心城区的屋顶光伏年均潜在发电量分别为1 369.25、1 278.10、923.36、3 213.88、3 150.76 GWh,分别能够满足122.08%、30.78%、61.47%、74.74%、174.57%的城镇居民生活用电需求;在等效替代火力发电的条件下,碳减排量分别为0.862×106、0.805×106、0.707×106、2.496×106、2.447×106 t。研究显示,屋顶光伏发电能够减少对传统能源的依赖,提升可再生能源渗透率,降低我国碳排放强度。

     

    Abstract: Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is significantly influenced by climatic factors. To rationally assess the rooftop PV potential in China, this study selected five cities with abundant rooftop resources in distinct climatic zones—Haikou, Kunming, Xining, Jinan, and Hohhot—and evaluated the PV generation potential and environmental benefits of their downtowns using GIS technology. The results indicate that the utilizable rooftop area for PV installations accounts for 34%–40% of the total rooftop area in the study regions. The annual potential PV generation in the central urban areas of Haikou, Kunming, Xining, Jinan, and Hohhot is estimated at 1 369.25 GWh, 1 278.10 GWh, 923.36 GWh, 3 213.88 GWh, and 3 150.76 GWh, respectively. These outputs could meet 122.08%, 30.78%, 61.47%, 74.74%, and 174.57% of the residential electricity demand in the corresponding cities. Under equivalent substitution of coal-fired power generation, the estimated carbon emission reductions reach 0.862×106 tons, 0.805×106 tons, 0.707×106 tons, 2.496×106 tons, and 2.447×106 tons, respectively. In conclusion, rooftop PV systems can effectively reduce reliance on conventional energy sources, mitigate climate change impacts, enhance renewable energy penetration rates, and lower carbon emission intensity in China.

     

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