地表水COD污染现状及其源解析研究进展

Research progress on the current situation of COD pollution in surface water and its source apportionment

  • 摘要: 化学需氧量(COD)作为评估水体污染程度的核心指标,由于人为干扰和气候影响,许多水体面临有机污染,大面积水体COD来源尚不清楚。简要介绍了地表水中COD污染情况、影响因素和当前的研究热点。重点总结归纳、对比了核算模型、受体模型、机理模型和机器学习在地表水COD污染源解析中的应用特点、优势和局限性以及未来的发展方向。主要研究发现:(1)我国COD污染呈现显著空间特异性,蒙新湖区为最高污染区,云贵高原湖区为次污染区。松花江、淮河及海河流域是重污染区;(2)在溯源方法学层面,受体模型适用于数据有限但需快速解析源的场景但计算污染源贡献时均需要服从线性关系的假设;机理模型也被称为“白箱模型”适用于水文、水质过程清晰的湖泊,需大量基础数据,对复杂污染源的动态迁移转化模拟较准确,但计算成本高;机器学习在环境模拟和预测表现出良好性能,计算速度快模拟精度高在处理多维非线性关系方面表现突出。当前污染源解析技术已成为水质超标诊断的核心工具,明显缺陷之一是难以直接验证解析结果和实际源贡献的误差,因为不可能获取到大尺度范围的真实源排放信息,现有的验证方法是采用机理模型模拟源贡献的数据再用受体模型求解。受体模型和机器学习普遍存在机制阐释不足的共性问题。引用多种可解释性技术破解“黑箱模型”的机理障碍,发展多模型耦合技术实现溯源精度与机制解析的双重提升,既包括不同原理模型的联用,也包括人工智能技术与传统源解析技术的联用。这将成为地表水COD精准溯源的重要发展趋势。

     

    Abstract: Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), as a core indicator for assessing the degree of water pollution, is subject to organic pollution in many water bodies due to human interference and climatic influence. The source of COD in large water bodies remains unclear. The pollution situation of COD in surface water, influencing factors and current research hotspots are briefly introduced. The application characteristics, advantages, limitations and future development directions of the calculation model, receptor model, mechanism model and machine learning in the analysis of surface water COD pollution sources were summarized and compared with emphasis. The main research findings are as follows: (1) COD pollution in China shows significant spatial specificity. The Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Lake area is the most polluted area, and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau Lake area is the secondary polluted area. The basins of the Songhua River, the Huai River and the Hai River are heavily polluted areas. (2) At the methodological level of source tracing, the receptor model is applicable to scenarios where the data is limited but the source needs to be resolved quickly. However, when calculating the contribution of pollution sources, the assumption of a linear relationship must be followed. The mechanism model, also known as the "white box model", is suitable for lakes with clear hydrological and water quality processes. It requires a large amount of basic data and is relatively accurate in simulating the dynamic migration and transformation of complex pollution sources, but has a high computational cost. Machine learning demonstrates excellent performance in environmental simulation and prediction, with fast computing speed and high simulation accuracy, and stands out in handling multi-dimensional nonlinear relationships. At present, pollution source apportionment technology has become a core tool for the diagnosis of water quality exceeding standards. One of the obvious drawbacks is that it is difficult to directly verify the error between the apportionment results and the actual source contribution, because it is impossible to obtain the real source discharge information on a large scale. The existing verification method is to use the mechanism model to simulate the data of the source contribution and then solve it with the receptor model. The receptor model and machine learning generally have the common problem of insufficient mechanism interpretation. A variety of interpretable technologies are adopted to break through the mechanism obstacles of the "black box model", and multi-model coupling technologies are developed to achieve a dual improvement in traceability accuracy and mechanism analysis. This includes not only the combination of different principle models but also the combination of artificial intelligence technology and traditional source analysis technology. This will become an important development trend for the precise traceability of COD in surface water

     

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