Abstract:
To reveal the carbon footprint characteristics, embodied carbon transfer patterns, and future trends of advanced manufacturing industries in western China, this study established a row and column scaling-cross entropy (RAS-CE) method within an input-output analysis framework to complete regional input-output tables. By integrating regional and multi-regional input-output models with energy consumption data, we measured the carbon footprint and embodied carbon transfers of advanced manufacturing industries in western China. A whale optimization algorithm-grey neural network model (WOA-GNN) was further developed to forecast their evolution trend toward 2030. The results showed that the carbon footprint of advanced manufacturing industries in western China exhibited pronounced regional and industrial disparities, with provinces possessing large manufacturing bases such as Sichuan, Guizhou, and Gansu recording the highest carbon emission levels, mainly concentrated in the non-metallic mineral products industry and the general equipment manufacturing industry. In contrast, the high-technology manufacturing industries generated relatively lower emissions, indicating substantial potential for low-carbon transformation. By 2030, the carbon footprint in heavy-industry-concentrated provinces including Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, and Guizhou is projected to increase significantly, whereas emissions in Qinghai and Ningxia are expected to remain relatively stable. Interregional carbon emission disparities are likely to narrow, indicating a convergence trend. Embodied carbon transfer was characterized by carbon outflows from resource-based provinces to manufacturing-oriented provinces and by transmission from upstream energy-intensive sectors to downstream manufacturing stages, forming a carbon flow network featuring "intra-provincial circulation and interregional diffusion" with green transition pressures concentrated in resource-exporting provinces and intermediate manufacturing sectors. Finally, we suggested that the low-carbon transformation of advanced manufacturing industries in western China should be promoted through coordinated regional actions, tiered industrial strategies, and cross-provincial carbon compensation mechanisms to achieve a synergistic emission reduction pathway integrating energy structure optimization, differentiated technological routes, and equitable allocation of carbon responsibility.