Abstract: The coupling and coordination of new quality productivity and carbon emission efficiency is critical for achieving the "dual carbon" goals and high-quality economic development. Based on provincial panel data of China from 2013 to 2022, the coupling coordination degree model, spatial correlation model, Dagum Gini coefficient, and random forest model were used to analyze the coupling coordination degree and spatial correlation, agglomeration characteristics, regional differences, and main influencing factors between new quality productivity and carbon emission efficiency. The results showed that the coordinated development of new quality productivity and carbon emission efficiency exhibited spatial differentiation characteristics, and the overall coordination level required urgent improvement. The coupling coordination degree showed a spatial positive correlation, and provinces with higher and lower coupling coordination degrees exhibited clustering effects. The overall difference in coupling coordination degree was gradually expanding, and regional differences were the main influencing factor for the uneven coordinated development of new quality productivity and carbon emission efficiency. The digital economy, high-level industrial structure, sustainable industrial structure, energy intensity, technological progress, and level of openness to the outside world had significant impacts on the degree of coupling and coordination.