青藏高原城市气候变化风险评估与适应路径

Adaptation pathways and strategies for urban climate resilience on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

  • 摘要: 本研究旨在系统识别青藏高原城市在气候变化背景下面临的主要风险特征,并构建适应路径以支撑区域气候韧性提升。基于IPCC风险框架,结合冰冻圈过程、城市暴露结构与社会脆弱性因素,构建了危险性—暴露度—脆弱性评估体系,并以西宁市为案例,利用气象观测、冻土监测、人口与基础设施等数据开展综合风险评估与空间识别。结果表明,青藏高原城市的高风险区主要集中在河谷盆地及主城区,其形成源于极端高温与强降水增强、人口与基础设施高度集聚以及弱势群体脆弱性叠加等多重因素;冻土退化和冰湖扩张等冰冻圈过程进一步放大了城市系统性风险。在此基础上,提出面向高原城市的生态-工程-制度协同适应路径,包括恢复湿地与河岸缓冲带、提升冻土区基础设施安全性、完善多级预警体系与风险分担机制等重要措施,以期为青藏高原城市应对持续增温和复合灾害提供科学依据与政策参考。

     

    Abstract: This study aims to systematically identify the key climate-related risk characteristics faced by cities on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and develop adaptation pathways to enhance regional climate resilience. Based on the risk framework of the IPCC, we constructed a hazard-exposure-vulnerability assessment system integrating permafrost processes, urban exposure patterns, and social vulnerability factors. Using Xining City as a case study, we applied the system to conduct a comprehensive risk assessment and spatial mapping, utilizing data from meteorological observations, permafrost monitoring, demographics, and infrastructure. The results showed that high-risk urban areas on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau were concentrated in river valley basins and main urban centers, driven by intensified extreme heat and heavy precipitation, dense population and infrastructure concentration, and overlapping vulnerabilities of marginalized communities. Permafrost degradation and ice-lake expansion further amplified the systemic citywide risks. Based on these findings, we proposed a suite of ecology-engineering-governance integrated adaptation pathways tailored for plateau cities: restoring wetlands and riparian buffer zones, enhancing infrastructure safety in permafrost areas, and establishing a multi-tiered early warning and risk-sharing mechanism. This study provides scientific support and policy guidance for plateau cities confronting ongoing warming and compound hazards.

     

/

返回文章
返回