Abstract: As a major agricultural province, Shandong Province has experienced rapid development of agricultural economy, which ha been accompanied by increasingly severe challenges of agricultural non-point source (NPS) pollution. To accurately promote pollution control, this study took Shandong Province as an example and systematically analyzed its pollution characteristics and development stages through the division of agricultural NPS pollution control zones and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) test. Based on panel data from 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022, the study innovatively constructed a "risk type" dual zoning system to identify pollution characteristics in different regions. Furthermore, using the EKC model, the relationship between agricultural economic growth and non-point source pollution was tested by city and pollution sources, and the regional differences and development stages were analyzed in depth. The results showed that the backdrop of steady overall growth in per capita agricultural output value across prefecture-level cities, the total amount of agricultural NPS emissions in the province had decreased by 37.97%, opposite to the economic growth trend, and the spatial distribution and economic pattern showed a reverse characteristic. The pollution zoning presented an evolutionary feature of "risk downgrading and type simplification", with high-risk areas having completely exited, and single pollution types driven by livestock and poultry breeding having become the main type of pollution. The EKC relationship in Shandong Province exhibited heterogeneity of "3 N-shaped curves and 1 inverted N-shaped curve", with most cities facing pollution rebound pressure at the end of the study period. The research shows that the control of agricultural NPS pollution in Shandong Province has entered a critical period, and future control strategies need to shift towards a precise prevention and control model based on zoning results and EKC characteristics, with a focus on zoning-classification and source-targeted measures.