Abstract:
This study takes Shandong Province as an example and, based on groundwater depth and resource data from 2005 to 2022, comprehensively uses Mann Kendall (MK) trend test, Pearson correlation analysis, and partial least squares regression (PLSR) methods to systematically reveal the evolution characteristics and driving factors of groundwater depth and resource in Shandong Province. The results show that: (1) From 2005 to 2022, there was a significant synergistic relationship between groundwater depth and resource quantity in Shandong Province, which experienced three stages of "stability, severe fluctuations, and gradual recovery" as a whole. (2) MK trend analysis indicates that 2008, 2014, and 2020 were key inflection points for groundwater depth and resource abundance. (3) Correlation analysis shows that groundwater supply (r=0.81) is the main factor affecting resource changes, and there is a strong positive correlation between population size and agricultural water use, but there is a certain lag in the impact on groundwater resources. (4) At different time periods, the contribution of human factors to groundwater resources varies. The impact of artificial ecological environment water use and South to North Water Diversion water supply significantly increases in the later stage, reflecting the positive effects of policy regulation and ecological construction. The findings of this study will provide scientific support for Shandong Province in achieving dynamic balance of groundwater resources and implementing precise water resource management policies. Moreover, they will lay an important foundation for protecting groundwater ecosystems and maintaining the coordinated stability between groundwater and surface ecosystems.