人为因素对地下水埋深和资源量的影响——以山东省为例

The Impact of Human Factors on Groundwater Depth and Resource Quantity: A Case Study of Shandong Province

  • 摘要: 本研究以山东省为例,并基于2005—2022年地下水埋深与资源量数据,综合运用Mann-Kendall(MK)趋势检验、皮尔逊相关性分析与偏最小二乘回归(PLSR)等方法,系统揭示了山东省地下水埋深和资源量的演变特征及其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)2005—2022年期间,山东省地下水埋深与资源量呈现显著的协同变化关系,整体经历了“稳定—剧烈波动—逐步恢复”三个阶段。(2)MK趋势分析表明2008年、2014年和2020年为地下水埋深和资源量的关键突变节点。(3)相关性分析表明,地下水供水量(r=0.81)是影响资源量变化的主要因素,人口规模与农业用水亦呈较强正相关,但对地下水资源影响有一定滞后性。(4)不同时间段,人为因素对地下水资源的贡献度不同,人工生态环境用水与南水北调供水量在后期影响显著提升,反映政策调控与生态建设的积极成效。本研究结果将为山东省实现地下水资源动态平衡、精准落地水资源管理政策提供科学支撑,更为保护地下水生态系统、维系地下水与地表生态的协同稳定奠定重要基础。

     

    Abstract: This study takes Shandong Province as an example and, based on groundwater depth and resource data from 2005 to 2022, comprehensively uses Mann Kendall (MK) trend test, Pearson correlation analysis, and partial least squares regression (PLSR) methods to systematically reveal the evolution characteristics and driving factors of groundwater depth and resource in Shandong Province. The results show that: (1) From 2005 to 2022, there was a significant synergistic relationship between groundwater depth and resource quantity in Shandong Province, which experienced three stages of "stability, severe fluctuations, and gradual recovery" as a whole. (2) MK trend analysis indicates that 2008, 2014, and 2020 were key inflection points for groundwater depth and resource abundance. (3) Correlation analysis shows that groundwater supply (r=0.81) is the main factor affecting resource changes, and there is a strong positive correlation between population size and agricultural water use, but there is a certain lag in the impact on groundwater resources. (4) At different time periods, the contribution of human factors to groundwater resources varies. The impact of artificial ecological environment water use and South to North Water Diversion water supply significantly increases in the later stage, reflecting the positive effects of policy regulation and ecological construction. The findings of this study will provide scientific support for Shandong Province in achieving dynamic balance of groundwater resources and implementing precise water resource management policies. Moreover, they will lay an important foundation for protecting groundwater ecosystems and maintaining the coordinated stability between groundwater and surface ecosystems.

     

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