丹江口库区面源污染风险的时空演化及其景观格局驱动机制

Spatiotemporal evolution of non-point source pollution risk in the Danjiangkou Reservoir area and the driving mechanism of landscape pattern

  • 摘要: 丹江口库区作为南水北调中线工程的水源地,其面源污染风险对水质安全构成重大威胁。基于源-汇景观理论,结合最小累积阻力模型与不同年份土地利用数据(2000—2020年),评估了丹江口库区面源污染风险的时空变化特征,研究了景观空间格局对面源污染风险的作用机制。选取相对高程、归一化植被指数、降雨侵蚀力、地形湿润指数等8个阻力因子构建阻力面,并通过随机森林算法分析不同景观格局指数对面源污染阻力值的影响。结果表明:不同年份面源污染的高风险区主要分布在东南部近水体区域,约占库区总面积的22.6%;土地利用转变过程分析表明,持续林地和更新造林随着年份的增长,阻力值呈缓慢上升趋势,反映林地在面源污染控制方面具有持续且稳定的高阻力特性,而更新造林的阻力值却低于持续林地,说明更新林也增强了对面源污染的拦截能力,但效果弱于持续林地。退化林地随着年份的增加,阻力值呈明显下降趋势(p<0.05),并且退化林地阻力值小于持续林地和更新造林;随机森林算法结果显示,不同年份对面源污染阻力值影响最大的景观格局指数因子为斑块聚集指数,相对重要程度为28.41%~34.34%,其次为聚集度指数和景观形状指数,取值范围分别为12.62%~16.18%和11.15%~17.83%。综上,丹江口库区面源污染风险不仅受土地利用类型的控制,更关键地取决于景观的空间配置。优化景观格局,特别是提升“汇”景观的连通性,是阻断污染物迁移、保障丹江口库区水质安全的重要途径。

     

    Abstract: Serving as the core water source for the Middle Route of China's South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the Danjiangkou Reservoir area confronts substantial risks to its water quality security from non-point source (NPS) pollution. Based on the "source-sink" landscape theory and the Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model, this study utilized multi-temporal land use data (2000-2020) to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of NPS pollution risk in the Danjiangkou Reservoir area. Furthermore, it investigated the mechanisms by which landscape spatial patterns influence NPS pollution risk. Eight resistance factors, including relative elevation, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), rainfall erosivity, and the topographic wetness index, were incorporated to develop a comprehensive resistance surface. Then, a random forest algorithm was applied to examine how various landscape pattern indices influenced the resistance values associated with NPS pollution. The results demonstrated that high-risk zones for NPS pollution were persistently clustered in southeastern areas near water bodies throughout the examined period, comprising approximately 22.6% of the reservoir's total area. Analysis of land-use transition dynamics revealed that both stable forestland and reforested areas exhibited a gradual increase in resistance values over time, demonstrating the sustained and stable high resistance characteristics of forestland in controlling NPS pollution. Notably, reforested areas presented lower resistance values than stable forestland, indicating that while reforestation improved interception capacity against NPS pollution, its efficacy remained secondary to that of long-established forests. Degraded forestland showed a significant decreasing trend in resistance value over time (p<0.05), and its resistance value was lower than that of the stable forestland and the reforested areas. According to the random forest algorithm, the patch cohesion index emerged as the most influential landscape pattern index affecting NPS pollution resistance throughout the study period, with relative importance values varying between 28.41% and 34.34%. This was followed by the aggregation index and the landscape shape index, which displayed relative importance ranges of 12.62%-16.18% and 11.15%-17.83%, respectively. Based on the above analysis, NPS pollution risk in the Danjiangkou Reservoir area is influenced not only by land use types but also, and more critically, by the spatial configuration of the landscape. Optimizing landscape patterns, particularly through enhancing the connectivity of "sink" landscapes, constitutes a strategic approach to intercept pollutant transport and ensure water quality safety for the Danjiangkou Reservoir area.

     

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