阅海营养状态演变及主控因子识别研究

Study on the evolution of nutritional status and the identification of main control factors in Yuehai

  • 摘要: 阅海是国家湿地公园,也是黄河上游引黄灌区典型退水湖泊,水体营养状态是影响其生态系统稳定性的重要因素。为探究阅海营养状态演变趋势及主要影响因素,研究基于2020-2024年断面长序列水质数据,采用Mann-Kendall检验(M-K检验)、主成分分析(PCA)与结构方程模型(SEM),分析营养状态时间变化及驱动因素。结果表明:2020-2024年,阅海综合营养状态指数(TLI(Σ))年均值介于47.29~50.18之间,整体处于中营养水平,存在富营养化风险。TLI(Σ)在月尺度显著上升(Z=3.406,P=0.001)年尺度无显著变化趋势(P=0.083),TLI(Σ)高峰期表现出向后推迟并伴随高位持续的新态势,水体营养状态的关键期为每年的6-11月。PCA揭示阅海营养状态主要由磷-有机污染协同温度影响藻类增殖(PC1),同时生态补水氮输入(PC2)及磷-理化因子耦合(PC3)共同影响,TLI(Σ)与叶绿素a(Chl.a)、透明度(SD)、总磷(TP)等关键因子显著相关(P<0.01)。结构方程模型结果显示,理化因子pH、SD、T对TLI(Σ)的路径系数为0.367,TP对TLI(Σ)的路径系数为0.242,两者为直接驱动因子,共同驱动阅海营养状态变化。本研究可为同类型湖泊水环境质量管理及藻华预警防控提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Yuehai,a national wetland park, serves as a typical drainage lake in the Yellow River irrigation area in the upper reaches. Its water trophic state is a critical factor influencing the stability of its ecosystem. To investigate the evolution trends and main driving factors of the trophic state in Yuehai , this study analyzed long-term sequential water quality data from 2020 to 2024 using Mann-Kendall test,principal component analysis,and structural equation modeling to examine temporal changes and driving factors.The results indicated that the annual average of the comprehensive trophic level index for Yuehai ranged between 47.29 and 50.18 from 2020 to 2024, indicating a mesotrophic state overall with a risk of eutrophication. The monthly TLI(Σ) showed a significant increasing trend (Z=3.406, P=0.001), while no significant trend was observed on an annual scale (P = 0.083).The peak period of TLI(Σ) exhibited a delayed and sustained high-level pattern, with the key period for the lake's trophic state occurring from June to November each year. PCA revealed that the trophic state of Yuehai is primarily influenced by the synergistic effect of phosphorus and organic pollution combined with temperature on algal proliferation, supplemented by nitrogen input from ecological water replenishment and the coupling of phosphorus with physicochemical factors. TLI(Σ) showed significant correlations with key factors such as chlorophyll-a, transparency, and total phosphorus (P<0.01). The structural equation modeling results demonstrated that physicochemical factors, including pH, SD,and T,had a path coefficient of 0.367 with TLI(Σ), while the path coefficient for TP was 0.242. Both are identified as direct drivers collectively influencing the trophic state changes in Yuehai. This study can provide a reference for water environment quality management and algal bloom early warning and control in similar lakes.

     

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