基于DCNN-BiLSTM-Attention的CFB-FGD脱硫出口SO2浓度动态预测模型

Dynamic prediction model for CFB-FGD desulfurization outlet SO2 concentration based on DCNN-BiLSTM-Attention

  • 摘要: 循环流化床半干法脱硫系统在钢铁行业烧结机烟气治理中得到广泛应用。然而,该系统结构复杂,存在气固两相流动与多步反应共存等特点,传统机理模型难以准确捕捉其出口SO2浓度动态变化规律。为指导脱硫系统稳定运行,构建了一种融合深层卷积神经网络(DCNN)、双向长短时记忆网络(BiLSTM)和注意力机制(Attention)的DCNN-BiLSTM-Attention混合预测模型,引入滑动窗口IQR与Savitzky-Golay滤波进行数据处理,结合互信息方法筛选7个关键参数作为输入,并基于某钢厂实际运行数据进行了验证。结果表明,该模型在测试集上取得较高精度,平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.404 7 mg/m3,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.525 7 mg/m3,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为6.62%,决定系数(R2)为0.979 9,与CNN-BiLSTM-Attention模型相比,平均绝对误差、均方根误差、平均绝对百分比误差分别下降了33.84%、32.89%、36.69%,决定系数提高2.56%。此外,该模型在SO2浓度波动较大时仍能保持较高的预测精度与稳定性,可为指导CFB-FGD系统稳定运行与优化控制提供参考。

     

    Abstract: The circulating fluidized bed (CFB) semi-dry flue gas desulfurization (FGD) system is widely used for sintering flue gas treatment in the iron and steel industry. However, due to its complex structure and the coexistence of gas-solid two-phase flow and multi-step reactions, traditional mechanistic models are inadequate for accurately predicting dynamic variation patterns in the outlet SO2 concentration. To guide the stable operation of the desulfurization system, a hybrid prediction model named DCNN-BiLSTM-Attention was constructed, integrating Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (DCNN), Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) networks, and an Attention mechanism. Sliding-window IQR and Savitzky-Golay filtering were applied for data processing, and seven key variables were selected as inputs using the mutual information method. The model was validated based on actual operating data from a steel plant. The results demonstrated that the model achieved high accuracy on the test set, with mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the proposed DCNN-BiLSTM-Attention model being 0.4047 mg/m3, 0.5257 mg/m3, and 6.62%, respectively, which were 33.84%, 32.89%, and 36.69% lower than those of the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model. The coefficient of determination (R2) reached 0.9799, representing a 2.56% improvement. Furthermore, the model maintained high prediction accuracy and stability even under significant SO2 concentration fluctuations. This study provides a reliable technical reference for guiding the stable operation and optimized control of CFB-FGD systems.

     

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